Peter Dutton faces another critical test of his abilities as Opposition Leader.
It hinges on a simple proposition: Can he force enough voters to reconsider their opinion of Anthony Albanese in a demonstrably negative way?
Having succeeded in ending Albanese’s honeymoon over the failed voice referendum, Dutton can’t afford now to let Labor win the argument on cost of living.
The strategic policy question has already been answered for the Liberal leader. The Coalition can’t stand in the way of Labor’s tax legislation. Dutton has already expressed as much. And the Coalition party room will likely rubber stamp this decision on Tuesday.
Woven into Albanese’s tax reset is a political hand grenade for the Liberal Party should it oppose on a matter of principle. The campaign writes itself, not only for the Dunkley by-election but beyond: “The only thing standing in the way of workers and a tax cut is Dutton.”
This leaves Dutton with the primary political task of trying to destroy the Prime Minister’s credibility and raising sufficient doubt about whether he can ever be trusted on anything again after such a brazen breach of electoral faith. This must be a relentless attack.
This campaign begins on Tuesday when parliament resumes and Albanese’s legislation is put to it.
Dutton has plenty to work with. He can’t rely on Albanese being hoist by his own petard over a broken promise.
The Liberal leader’s political judgment so far has been sound.
Yet politics is now at a pivotal point where it could go either way. The next election is still highly contestable.
The first Newspoll of 2024 shows the Coalition is still in the hunt. Albanese failed to excite voters enough with his tax plan to swing voters back Labor’s way.
There is opportunity for Dutton if he can prosecute the case against Albanese at a personal level. There are flashpoints across a range of portfolios beyond Treasury, including the crisis in defence and housing.
At a policy level there is an abundance of ammunition as Labor becomes more emboldened in its indulgence of ideological fantasies.
Chris Bowen’s latest plan to see off the tradie’s ute with a 60 per cent reduction in car emissions by 2030 should be grist to the mill.
Despite all this, there is no sense yet that the Coalition is seen as the natural answer to any of these issues, particularly on cost of living.
Dutton needs to get on the field with the formulation of a Coalition policy response to this defining issue.
The longer he leaves it, the harder it will become.
Having allowed Albanese to seize the initiative this year, Dutton risks allowing Labor to wrestle back command of the political agenda it had lost control of last year.
Politics is a confidence game and unless the Coalition frontbench can kick it up a gear, Dutton risks being politically stranded.
Whether the Coalition is up for the fight of its life may well be reflected in the number of MPs who get ejected from parliament on Tuesday for calling the Prime Minister a liar during question time.
Weak government response means anti-Semites are winning
The Albanese government must now assume Australia’s Jewish community is under active terrorist attack and set up an Operation Sovereign Borders-type multi-agency campaign to combat the deadly rise of anti-Semitism.
Rise of local terror demands better from our leaders
The scourge of anti-Semitism in Australia has become a runaway train that now demands a radically escalated counter-terror mindset from federal and state governments, police and spy agencies.