Scott Morrison has misread the mood and the marketing response to bushfires has been disastrous
Poor political judgment is one thing. Competency is another thing altogether.
This is the political danger zone Scott Morrison wants to avoid in his handling of the bushfire crisis. It is not at that stage yet for the Prime Minster and it’s unlikely he would allow it to get to that point. He has a chance to prevent the perception that his leadership is being defined by events rather than appearing a leader in control of events.
The unfortunate timing of his Hawaii holiday triggered the political storm. But until a week ago, it was an issue most dominant in NSW, unlike in Victoria where it featured in the nightly news bulletins but didn’t lead them. Morrison’s mea culpa over his holiday has since been supplanted by a series of political missteps that have only fed the drubbing he is copping and quickly became a media-management issue.
It is puzzling how a political tactician as formidable as Morrison allowed himself to be flanked by a political narrative that would have him portrayed as a tone-deaf Prime Minister who has stuffed it up.
A fair contrast can be drawn between his handling of this crisis and the leadership shown on the drought response.
Since the election, voters have been prepared to cut the Prime Minister slack in the knowledge the curtain had finally fallen on the decade-long Canberra pantomime.
But that reservoir of goodwill could run dry unless he is seen to be taking charge of the agenda.
There is an element of political hysteria around the position in which Morrison finds himself. But he has misread the mood, and the marketing response has been disastrous.
Ads promoting the defence force deployment had purpose in reassuring communities that the government was on top of the situation. But that, too, has been framed as a political attempt to repair the damage to his own image rather than a justified and necessary information campaign. This just got him into deeper trouble.
Morrison at the weekend seized the initiative with his move to a permanent national footing to deal with the fires.
There is abundant evidence to suggest these events will increase in frequency and intensity rather than subside.
A national approach, rather than ad hoc state arrangements, is required. And the longer the fire crisis continues, the longer the recovery will be. This should become a permanent feature of the national emergency response architecture.
Morrison’s ability to deliver will go a long way to restoring confidence in his judgment and to extinguish questions over competency.
But the political problems for Morrison don’t stop there. Like the drought, there will be a significant impact on the economy and potentially the surplus. Once again, priorities will be tested against political exigencies that, by their very nature, will become matters of judgment for the Prime Minister.