Policy now in opposition's hands

THIS week's Immigration Department briefings mean the onus falls on Tony Abbott to decide whether his aim is to stop the boats or merely sink the Gillard government.

This issue has become a test not just of Julia Gillard but of the Opposition Leader. Gillard cannot save any form of offshore processing without Abbott's goodwill.

The private advice from Immigration Department chief Andrew Metcalfe is entirely predictable: offshore processing is the key to halting boats, Nauru doesn't work as a disincentive, tougher steps such as the Malaysian deal are needed and more boat arrivals threaten Australia's big and orderly immigration intake.

This is the advice Abbott will get as prime minister. It is the best professional assessment Australia has. It suggests Abbott's current policy, while a brilliant political success, cannot stop the boats.

What is required now is obvious: Labor and the Coalition need to amend the Migration Act to restore power to the executive government to negotiate offshore processing arrangements in the region. It is an open and shut case - except for the politics.

The Prime Minister and Immigration Minister Chris Bowen will defy their caucus and stick by offshore processing but, in the end, they need a tenable position.

Being told by the opposition that Nauru is the answer is, hopefully, a negotiating ploy. By itself, this does not constitute a workable policy.

The opposition needs to think hard about the powers it will need in office to stop the boats. Denying such powers to Gillard now will not help Abbott later.