PM needs to stop leading with the chin

MOST parents know the scene: a toddler in a tantrum, eyes shut tight, hands over both ears and shouting "nah, nah, nah" because they don't want to hear whatever mum or dad is trying to tell them.

This is the picture conjured up by JWS Research's marginal seats polling this week.

Julia Gillard is investing every waking moment in the campaign of her life for a carbon tax, and the electorate doesn't want to hear it.

Every time the Prime Minister tells voters they don't understand her package, the patronising antagonises them.

There will be receptive audiences at GetUp! or perhaps at the public broadcasters but in the suburbs and towns the mainstream have made up their minds. If there are no "greybeards" in her office, Gillard must find advice elsewhere.

The undergraduate, GetUp!-style campaigning that led Kevin Rudd astray is killing all her hopes. Such campaigns can work only among the converted; they will not change the minds of voters. Any change for the mainstream will come only after a long period of consideration and the emergence of more evidence showing now is an appropriate time to act. After all, just a year ago, Gillard told us it was time to put the issue on the backburner.

As the Prime Minister admitted this week, she cannot "unsay" her broken promise, but she can change the subject and stop leading with her chin.

If her government is to have any chance of running its course, it must find reforms that will deliver unarguable benefits for the nation. The JWS polling shows that education, health and the economy are good places to focus.

If she doubts this advice, she need ask herself one question: what issue does Tony Abbott want me to talk about?