Anthony Albanese’s diplomatic skills will be put to the test in coming days when, all being well, he comes face-to-face with Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Bali.
Labor has been working towards the meeting since before the election, trying to take the heat out of the bilateral relationship even as the Coalition threw petrol on the fire. But the government rightly has low expectations from the talks.
Albanese has virtually no room to move. He’s not about to do an about-face on Huawei, nobble the Foreign Investment Review Board or side with Beijing on Taiwan.
He said he wasn’t setting preconditions for the talks. But for any meaningful improvement in relations, China must overturn its punitive bans on Australian exports. That’s not likely to happen instantly, although it could over time in a way that avoids loss of face for Beijing.
There are some important upsides for China to improve relations with Australia.
The toxic relationship has been an irritant for China, demonstrating to other countries that it was possible to stand up to the economic and military behemoth without significant cost. After all, most of the exports banned by China found other buyers on the global market.
Australia is the staunchest of US allies, and has been one of the loudest voices in challenging Chinese actions that undermine the rules-based order.
The business sector will welcome any thaw in relations with Australia’s biggest trading partner, after being last to the party in taking a stand over China’s bad behaviour.
No one wants to stoke conflict or see Australian exporters out of pocket, but domestic opinion has hardened substantially against China. In the latest Lowy Institute Poll, 75 per cent of respondents said it was likely China would become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years. Only 11 per cent expressed confidence in Xi to act responsibly in the world.
But there will never be a “reset”. China, and indeed Russia, have shifted too far from the global consensus, believing they can set their own rules.
The best Albanese can hope for is an uneasy truce, and an end to the counter-productive war of words.
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