Scott Morrison is off to a historic Washington summit of the Quadrilateral Dialogue after his Defence Minister, Peter Dutton, and Foreign Minister, Marise Payne, conducted one of the most intensive diplomatic journeys in modern Australian history.
Morrison may be criticised, bizarrely, for going from Sydney to the nation’s capital to undertake his day job – being Prime Minister of Australia – but he will surely not be criticised for this long trip to Washington.
Morrison, Dutton and Payne are doing exactly what an Australian government should be doing in light of the two overwhelming new realities facing Australia: Chinese bullying and American uncertainty.
In light of those two developments, Canberra must thicken its connections with the rest of Asia, especially the democracies and the most significant economic and military powers, and it must show Washington its allies are undertaking their own security actions in the region and not leaving everything to the US, as well as engaging in the most intimate dialogue possible with the Americans to keep their attention focused on the Indo-Pacific.
Dutton and Payne, surely the oddest couple the modern Liberal Party could throw together, have had great success in a superbly constructed tout through Indonesia, India and South Korea on their way to the annual AUSMIN talks in Washington.
The logistics and practical challenges of this trip in the time of Covid are enormous. Both ministers and their staffs are tested for Covid as they arrive at each national airport and receive high speed test results. They must wear masks nearly the whole time, including for conversations already going through the two-way filters of interpreters.
Both ministers will also have to undergo two weeks of quarantine when they return to Australia.
In all three capitals – Jakarta, Delhi and Seoul – the Australians have got impressive results.
Dutton has made the strongest statements, as befits his standing in the government and the portfolio he holds.
He has told all his Asian interlocutors that Beijing’s bullying behaviour is a big problem for the region. His plain-spokenness earnt him a characteristic rebuke from China’s foreign ministry, which described his comments as “extremely dangerous and irresponsible”. Beijing demonstrates a tin-ear in this sort of reaction.
If there’s one member of the Morrison ministry you’re not going to bully, it’s Dutton.
The substantial outcomes of each visit were significant. The governments of Indonesia, India and South Korea all committed to increased military co-operation with Australia, enhanced exercises and greater technical exchanges, as part of the Dutton-Payne visit.
None of Dutton’s Asian counterparts was as outspoken as him, but the fact they wanted to embrace enhanced military closeness to Australia at this time is itself a stinging rebuke to Beijing.
In India and South Korea, Dutton and Payne met the Prime Minister and President respectively, as well as ministerial counterparts. This was both nations giving extra honour to Australia.
That the nations, their senior ministers and heads of government were willing to accommodate what was a very tight timeframe for the Australian ministers in the lead-up to their Washington AUSMIN commitments is also a sign of their refusal to buy any part of Beijing’s campaign against Australia.
Canberra has thus maintained, and indeed enhanced, its standing in Asia despite Beijing’s constant vilification.
That is a considerable achievement. And the thickening web of interactions and co-operation among the region’s democracies is an important dynamic in itself.
It’s assuredly not an Asian NATO. It’s now a new alliance. It’s not even a proto-alliance, but it is a clear geopolitical signal.
It’s also the perfect way to lead in to the AUSMIN meetings.
Dutton will have a separate bilateral meeting with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin before AUSMIN and the two men will sign a joint statement of intent on strategic capabilities.
AUSMIN itself will see a significant joint declaration. It is likely to include some movement on the proposal for Australia to build American missiles, or, as it’s officially called, develop a sovereign guided weapons capability in Australia.
Dutton is also a strong proponent of increased US military involvement in northern Australia and this may mean more US Marines, more US ships and planes, expanded Australian runways, improved ports and other military infrastructure.
This is good in itself and an important part of tying the US to our region and to its security.
South Korea and Indonesia are the two most important Asian democracies which are not part of the Quad.
That they and India want to co-operate more with Australia on cyber and grey-zone conflict prevention is also good news for Canberra and bad news for Beijing.
Morrison will hold separate bilateral talks with all his Quad counterparts – Joe Biden, India’s Narendra Modi, and Japan’s Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga.
Morrison’s team looked closely at trying to fit a visit to either Indonesia or India into the same trip. The Prime Minister will have good deal of time with Modi in America and the logistics of an Indonesian trip just proved unworkable in the end.
But overall this is extremely productive diplomacy for Australia.
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