Nuclear not the main game for voters ahead of cost-of-living election

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, with frontbenchers Ted O’Brien and Angus Taylor, must present a more credible economic and energy plan for now to win next year’s election. Picture: John Gass/NewsWire

Peter Dutton’s promise to build nuclear power stations will not win him the federal election.

Households and businesses struggling to pay their bills and mortgages can’t think past next month, let alone what might or might not happen over two decades. Dutton and Anthony Albanese understand next year’s election is about who voters believe has the more credible plan to shake Australia out of its economic funk.

For all the eye-watering numbers in the Coalition’s nuclear energy modelling and assumptions about Australia’s electricity system in the 2030s and 2040s, the exercise amplified political weak points for the Albanese government.

Dutton is promising cheaper power led by zero-emissions nuclear, without stipulating cost reductions for households and businesses. He is promising to shield regional Australia by axing transmission projects, without saying what the Coalition would scrap. And he is presenting a Coalition with credible plans to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, based on assumptions that may or may not eventuate.

With premiers opposed to nuclear, business chiefs worried about investment certainty and energy companies concerned coal-fired power stations are already running on fumes, a Dutton government would struggle to achieve its ambitious nuclear reactor timelines based on overseas experiences of delays and cost blowouts.

As senior Liberals point out, the nuclear/net-zero plan will sit behind the Coalition’s primary election attack focused on Albanese’s broken promise to cut $275 from household power bills by 2025.

After holding back policies and election sweeteners most of this year, Dutton will have to start the new year with a bang amid expectations the PM will call an election following the summer break.

While replicating a $275 promise would be foolish, the nuclear costings lacked any reference to household price relief. Post-Christmas, Dutton will address how he would lower power bills and secure reliable energy over the next five to 10 years.

With polling indicating a tight contest ahead of next year’s election, Albanese’s incumbency at a time of awful economic indicators and flat growth is Labor’s Achilles heel.

Albanese, who on Saturday will travel to the Tasmanian town of Strahan in the swing seat of Braddon to reassure salmon workers their jobs are safe amid anger over his government’s environmental reviews, wants to make the election about the economy.

After spending most of his first term standing up the $15bn National Reconstruction Fund and $10bn Housing Australia Future Fund, Albanese and his ministers are preparing a flurry of pre-election manufacturing, jobs and housing funding commitments.

Next Wednesday’s mid-year budget update will squirrel away an election war chest allowing Albanese to ditch the scheduled March 25 budget and campaign on core Labor issues, including healthcare, Medicare, climate change and childcare.

Albanese will also make a big play for regional Australia votes. Expect Albanese to be ruthless early next year, in the hope of catching Dutton on the policy hop.