NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet’s vote lifts despite dire Nationals

Leaked industry polling reveals NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has begun to reclaim ground on Labor, with the Coalition’s primary vote inching up towards 37 per cent.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Flavio Brancaleone

Leaked industry polling reveals NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has begun to reclaim ground on Labor, with the Coalition’s primary vote inching up towards 37 per cent but facing a massive problem in the bush.

Four months from the state’s March poll, polling conducted on behalf of a major industry group, whose identity is known but which asked to remain anonymous, has the ­Coalition’s primary vote almost five percentage points off its 2019 election result under former premier Gladys Berejiklian.

After a horror few months for Mr Perrottet’s government in the wake of successive ministerial resignations, a Newspoll in September had the Coalition’s primary vote at 35 per cent, well behind Labor on 40 per cent.

The headache for Mr Perrottet is his junior Coalition partner. Under the leadership of Paul Toole, the Nationals’ appear to be haemorrhaging support, with the party’s primary vote languishing at just 4 per cent, 5.5 per cent off its previous election result.

Conversely, the Liberal’s primary vote has increased by one percentage point since the previous election.

Undertaken on November 8-10, the poll of 1000 respondents has the NSW ALP holding a comfortable lead, with the party’s primary vote on 40 per cent, at the same level as the September ­Newspoll.

The Nationals vote appears to have been cannibalised by One Nation. The primary vote of the Mark Latham-led party has jumped up to 6 per cent, 5 per cent higher than three years ago, raising fears One Nation may pick off Nat­ionals’ seats in the bush, particularly Upper Hunter.

On the back of successive legislative victories – including abolishing stamp duty for first-home buyers and the Coalition’s pharmacy reform – Mr Perrottet has steadied the Coalition’s prospects after scandal over John Barilaro’s appointment as the state’s New York trade envoy.

Equally, after months of enjoying an advantageous political terrain, Labor has begun to face challenges of its own. Bankstown MP Tania Mihailuk resigned from the party in October after levelling serious allegations of corruption against upper house ALP candidate Khal Asfour.

It compounded revelations Mr Asfour, mayor of Canterbury-Bankstown, charged ratepayers up to $48,000 for a postgraduate degree.

ALP leader Chris Minns’ satisfaction rating remains strong, with 42 per cent of respondents holding a positive opinion of the Opposition Leader, according to the industry polling, with 27 per cent dissatisfied – a plus 15-­percentage-point difference and an identical result to September’s Newspoll. More than one in five remain uncertain about Mr Minns.

Mr Perrottet, however, has slid into negative territory. Only 39 per cent of respondents thought positively of the Premier, while 47 per cent had a negative perception. NSW Treasurer and deputy Liberal leader Matt Kean equally is in negative territory, with a satisfaction rating of negative 8 per cent.

Of the minor parties, the Greens primary vote has not budged in three years, according to the polling, at 9 per cent. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers have fallen to 1 per cent, down 2.5 percentage points since 2019.

Teal independents have a combined vote of 4 per cent.