NSW Liberals risk losing critical by-election seats after ballot crisis

Factional rivalries within the NSW Liberal Party threaten to overshadow the October double state by-election, as two relatively unknown candidates struggle to hold critical Liberal seats in the branch’s heartland.

Liberal Epping candidate Monica Tudehope.

Factional rivalries within the NSW Liberal Party threaten to overshadow the October double state by-election, as two relatively unknown candidates struggle to hold critical Liberal seats in the branch’s heartland.

While powerbrokers within the Liberal Party worry about the effect a potential implosion of the state branch could have on the upcoming federal election, key NSW party figures argue the fallout could hit the party far sooner.

“The chaos caused by Don Harwin and his friends on the state executive has put both (Liberal Hornsby candidate) James Wallace and (Liberal Epping candidate) Monica Tudehope’s candidacies at risk, and that’s a very sad thing,” a Liberal source said.

In the 2023 state election, then-treasurer Matt Kean held Hornsby on an 8 per cent margin, and then-premier Dominic Perrottet held Epping with just under 5 per cent of the preferential vote ­majority. However, each saw a swing in favour of Labor that if replicated would leave the ALP candidates victorious. Neither seat has a preselected Labor hopeful as of writing.

Hornsby candidate James Wallace was described by former treasurer Matt Kean as a ‘once-in-a-generation political talent’.

NSW Liberal Party president Don Harwin. Picture: NewsWire / David Swift

A second senior Liberal argued the loss of key personalities from either seat made them especially vulnerable. “(Ms Tudehope) is going to need a bit of time to be known in the community. She might be known around staffing circles but she’s going to need to hit the ground running pretty hard.”

Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras said the party still had a chance to maintain both seats, given the electorates’ likely support for the opposition during a cost-of-living crisis. “It’s still a fairly solid piece of political terrain,” he said. “If they lose, it will be the result of the loss of a well-known Liberal incumbent. What you would need in order to lose is a series of these types of events, and this is the first.”

Ms Tudehope and Mr Wallace were contacted for comment.

The party’s preselection failures for council elections has been so destructive it has led some to doubt whether the Liberals should be fielding candidates in local government elections at all.

“It’s really a stupid concept that the major parties have got involved in,” a NSW Liberal said. “The Greens really got the ball rolling on it, and then Labor joined in a lot of places, and now the Libs just think we better get involved, because they’re involved.

“Local government is fraught with corruption risk, and it doesn’t really drive the brand.”

Ousted NSW Liberal state executive member Matthew Camenzuli urged the party to pull out of the LGAs. “This is exactly why plenty of people don’t think the Liberal Party should be running on council, and I’m one of them,” he said.

Wollongong Liberal councillor John Dorahy, who is unable to stand, saw his 10-point campaign plan ripped up by the preselection bungle, while Shoalhaven mayoral candidate Paul Ell said he was “gutted” after his political career had “only just started”.

Mr Ell, 33, previously ran as an independent before coming under the Liberal Party banner. “I’ve worked my guts out on behalf of my community,” he said. “We were rolling out a policy agenda which was going to create a lot of interest. All of that’s for naught now, and it’s just so devastating.”