NSW leaders’ footprints point way to seats that must be won

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet and Labor leader Chris Minns are concentrating much of their energy trying to win the seats of Parramatta and Leppington, analysis reveals.

Labor leader Chris Minns and NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet. Picture: Justin Lloyd

Parramatta has long held claim to being the geographic heart of Sydney. Now NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet and Labor leader Chris Minns have turned it into the ­epicentre of the 2023 election campaign.

The Australian has analysed the leaders’ movements since January 1, tallying up the number of press conferences, picture ­opportunities and speeches each has undertaken on the road to get a sense of the seats the Coalition and Labor are targeting.

It shows Mr Minns has outpaced the Premier in the aggregate, tallying up almost a quarter more appearances over the 10-week period, with both leaders ­focusing most of their energy on the seat of Parramatta, vacated by retiring Liberal minister Geoff Lee on a 6.5 per cent margin.

 

Mr Minns has visited the seat eight times, and Mr Perrottet six.

While much of Mr Minns’s time has been on the attack in Liberal seats, his five visits to Leppington – a notionally ALP-held seat on a 1.5 per cent margin established following a ­recent redistribution – demonstrates concern about the party’s ability to hold it.

The vulnerability of Parra­matta and Leppington has evidently been identified by Coalition strategists, with Mr Perrottet also a regular in the new seat, visiting four times.

Mr Perrottet has ventured out to Badgerys Creek – held by the Liberals on a usually safe 9.7 per cent buffer – three times.

With Environment Minister James Griffin facing a challenge from teal independent Joeline Hackman in the traditionally safe seat of Manly, once held by former premier Mike Baird, the Premier has stopped by the northern beaches seat twice, as he has in the paper-thin Liberal-held electorates of Penrith and East Hills.

Sandbagging the other teal-threatened seats – Wakehurst, Pittwater and North Sydney – has been left to Treasurer Matt Kean.

The Coalition goes into the election with a notional minority of 46 seats, including two held by former Liberals who sit as independents. Even assuming these are won back, the government must secure a net gain of at least one more seat to secure a majority.

The majority of the Premier’s media activity has been in ­Coalition-held seats, with only 40 per cent on the offensive trying to win new electoral assets.

Mr Minns, needing nine seats to claim a majority and six to claim minority government, has spent 58 per cent of this time on the ­offensive.

This has included four visits to the Liberal-held seats of Riverstone and South Coast, held on 6.2 per cent and 10.6 per cent margins, respectively. Penrith, East Hills and Strathfield, the seat of recently elected Labor MP Jason Yat-Sen Li, have each had three visits by the Labor leader.

The Greens’ seat of Balmain – vacated by retiring MP Jamie Parker – has had two visits from Mr Minns.

Sydney CBD – held by independent Alex Greenwich – is considered neutral territory, with neither party mustering a serious challenge.

Published in late February, the most recent Newspoll suggested a tightening of the race between the parties, with popular support for Labor plunging by four percentage points, halving its two-party-preferred lead.