No more kid gloves as ALP seeks to stem the bleeding over Fatima Payman

Senator Fatima Payman. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Anthony Albanese’s prediction of the resignation of rogue senator Fatima Payman from the ALP signals much more than just the loss of a disaffected rat from the ranks: it is possible Payman will spawn a new existential threat to Labor in its heartland.

Having suffered years of lost votes and support to the broad Greens’ movement in affluent inner-city seats, Labor could face a new threat of a tightly targeted faith-based Islamic movement in its traditional strongholds in outer, working-class suburbs in Sydney and Melbourne.

The threat to Labor could also trigger a broader major party co-operation at the next election, which could save Labor seats but limit Greens’ gains and help Liberals recapture lost seats.

It could be a realignment in which the major parties recognise that putting their main opponent above independent or minor party candidates on how-to-vote cards could be in their mutual interest.

Payman’s sophisticated media and political sleight of hand has had the Prime Minister over a barrel because he was unable to exercise the expected 130-year-old tough authority of suspending or expelling a Labor rat who crossed the floor to vote against government policy.

Payman was not a fat, greedy, older white male but a 29-year-old female Muslim from Afghanistan who was speaking not to self-interest but to the receptive pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel voters in western Sydney.

After putting up with attacks over his weakness – including from Greens’ leader Adam Bandt – for not being tougher sooner, Albanese revealed his true feelings in parliament that Payman was going to resign from the ALP, that she had had a month-long strategy and she had intended to do so all along.

Albanese dropped the delicate treatment of the diversity representative in the face of the growing truth she could well be the face of a new anti-Labor, pro-Palestinian party in key Sydney and Melbourne seats. These include at least four safe western Sydney seats held by senior ministers.

Labor’s vexed approach to Hamas’s terror attack on Israel and the counter-attack in Gaza means the pro-Palestinian Greens, who supported protests against MPs offices, including Albanese’s electorate office, have been able to harvest inner-city support and appeal to Muslim communities in outer suburbs.

At its most senior levels, the Albanese government can recognise the situation and is determined to head off a new existential threat before it can gather the momentum of the Climate 200, Simon Holmes a Court teal independents that snatched six seats from the Liberals at the last election.

After trying to play all sides, Labor realises it has to act or face the potential for a vote-sapping, life-destroying struggle in seats that were once ALP territory.