Newspoll: The year ahead is built for a conservative comeback

Opposition leader Peter Dutton at the Long Island Point Fractionation Plant in Hastings. Picture: NCA NewsWire/David Crosling

There is really only one obvious take out from today’s Newspoll results – Labor continues to enjoy its post election honeymoon.

A 10-point buffer on the two party vote alongside a sizeable primary vote lead over the Coalition (which to win elections needs to out poll Labor on this measure) suggests Anthony Albanese is sitting pretty and Peter Dutton could face a rocky year.

But we know the challenges incumbents will face in 2023: rising cost of living pressures, rising interest rates and inflation, declining house prices, the risk of recession and rising unemployment. All in a tight fiscal environment.

Given that the Coalition are traditionally seen as the better economic managers – a highly contestable proposition which has consistently been the polled view of the public – the year ahead is purpose built for a conservative comeback. If Dutton can find traction with voters. His personal approval numbers must worry Liberal strategists, not that there are obvious alternatives.

Australians of course couldn’t care less about the partisan political contest right now. Many probably care even less about the debate over an Indigenous voice to parliament, given the hardships they are facing on the financial front. When they do link politics with how their lives are faring, however, the risk for Labor is that people feel worse off since the change of government.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Gary Ramage

To be sure, given the economic climate thrust upon Labor they were always going to feel worse in the next few years, no matter who won election 2022. But just watch the Coalition seek to link the change of government to those feelings.

Which is why it is important the new government muscles up to any narrative the opposition seeks to use on the economy. Treasurer Jim Chalmers started this process in advance of the election, calling out the debt levels and the lack of reform under Scott Morrison’s prime ministership.

If reports of a surplus come the May budget are true, that will certainly help Labor dispel the notion they can’t manage money. Not that a possible surplus has a whole lot to do with decisions the new government has taken. Truth in political debate isn’t always front and centre.

While the times may suit Albanese’s consensus style of leadership, following years of highly adversarial politicking, it is equally possible the economic woes ahead suit Dutton’s capacity to stoke fear and loathing.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.