Newspoll: The Coalition nudges ahead in poll revamp

The Coalition holds a narrow lead over Labor, the first poll since Newspoll’s revamp shows.

Scott Morrison meets with Tim Paine during the Australia nets session at The Gabba. Picture: Getty

The Coalition holds a narrow lead over Labor ahead of the final parliamentary sitting fortnight of the year, with Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese both losing voter appeal.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Coalition ahead of Labor on a two-party-preferred vote of 51-49.

The latest Newspoll uses an improved methodology following an investigation into the failure of the major published polls — and internal political tracking — to ­accurately predict the May 18 election result.

READ MORE: Polling changes with the aim of getting it right: Campbell White

The poll interviewed 1519 voters, shifting to an online survey model following an assessment that traditional polling methods, including robocalls and contacting landlines, were proving less accurate.

A majority of voters expressed dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader, reflecting negative performance ratings in the poll, conducted ­between Thursday and Saturday.

The two-party-preferred and primary vote results closely ­reflected the federal election outcome, with the Coalition on a ­reduced primary vote of 41 per cent, and Labor on 33 per cent.

Anthony Albanese at the South Melbourne market in Melbourne on Sunday. Picture: AAP

READ MORE: ALP draws level as drought hits hard

In the most recent Newspoll, conducted two weeks ago, the major parties were locked at 50-50 on the two-party-preferred vote.

Campbell White, the head of public affairs and polling for YouGov Asia-Pacific, which conducts Newspoll for The Australian, said the May 18 result had prompted a rethink of past methodology.  Newspoll accurately predicted the outcome of the 2016 election and previous elections since the 1980s when it first began polling.

“The 2019 election was a disappointment for the polling ­industry. Without exception, every Australian poll got the outcome wrong,” Dr White says in The Australian on Monday.

“This has resulted in considerable scepticism towards polls and a period of intense reflection for those of us who are active in the industry. Australian polls, ­especially Newspoll, have been very accurate in recent years, while polls around the globe have struggled.

Dr White says polling in recent years has become “harder and harder to conduct and interpret”.

“A decade or so ago, most ­people had landlines and they tended to answer them.

“ There was very little call screening,’’ he says.

“This meant getting a representative sample was easier and pollsters did not need to be so skilled in modelling and scaling their data.

“The truth is, the old days are never coming back. In order to do better, we need to consider what we can do differently.

“We’ve seen a consistent pattern overseas where telephone polling has become less accurate and online polling more so as fewer people answer phone calls and more and more people are online.”

Dr White says response rates for robocalls in Australia have been falling and “many people find them annoying and invasive”.

“They tend to be answered largely by older people or those who are very interested in politics. Busy people who are less interested in politics either don’t answer or hang up. We believe this was a significant contributor to the inaccuracies seen at the election,’’ he says.

“Conducting surveys online will allow us to construct better samples, in terms of age, gender, and socio-economic representation. The more complex scripting we can do online will also allow us to tailor our questionnaires more precisely to reflect the ­choices voters actually face at the ballot box.”

The latest Newspoll also showed a downgrading of One Nation’s primary vote from 7 per cent to 5 per cent, and an increase in support for other minor parties, up from 6 per cent to 9 per cent, edging closer to the May 18 election result. The Greens’ primary vote remained at 12 per cent.

Newspoll results November 20 - 23.

Click here to read the full Newspoll results

Mr Morrison’s satisfaction rating was measured at 43 per cent, with a dissatisfaction rating of 52 per cent. It is the first net negative satisfaction rating recorded by the Prime Minister since the election.

Mr Albanese’s performance ratings also dropped, falling to a 38 per cent approval rating, compared with 42 per cent in the last Newspoll.

The Labor leader’s dissatisfaction rating rose to 45 per cent, up from 37 per cent previously.