Newspoll ‘science’ predicts SA swing, Premier Marshall’s defeat

The Weekend Australian’s exclusive Newspoll published on Saturday correctly picked the statewide swing against Stephen Marshall’s Liberal government.

The Weekend Australian’s exclusive Newspoll published on Saturday correctly picked the statewide swing against Stephen Marshall’s Liberal government, which swept it from power after only one term.

With just over half of the vote counted, Labor’s statewide swing of 5.6 per cent on a two-party preferred basis compared with the Newspoll’s prediction of a 5.9 per cent swing against the government.

This adds to Newspoll’s successful prediction of a landslide for WA Premier Mark McGowan in March last year. Newspoll predicted a 66-34 two party preferred result in the election compared with the final 69.7-30.3 per cent result.

In the October 2020 Queensland election, Newspoll picked the return of Annastacia Palaszczuk’s government, predicting a 51.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent result compared with the final 53.2-46.8 per cent result.

The successful predictions follow changes to Newspoll’s method of polling after it, along with other published polls, failed to pick Scott Morrison’s re-election in the 2019 federal election.

Campbell White, head of polling at YouGov, which conducts Newspoll, said YouGov updated and refreshed its methodology while maintaining the essence of the poll after the 2019 federal election.

“Just as Newspoll revolutionised polling in the 1980s by transitioning from face-to-face to telephone polling, so we have used the opportunity to move polling into the 21st century by shifting to online polling using targeted, stratified sampling methods,’’ Dr White said.

“The new methods are based on science and not gimmicks like ignoring the 2PP. People want polls to tell them what’s happening, not to obfuscate.’’