If Anthony Albanese can’t return Labor to majority government at the next election, his days as leader would most likely be short-lived.
As for the future of a minority Labor government, history has a potent lesson in that regard as well.
As the curtain falls on a troubled year for the federal Labor government, and the country, there is no sign that indicates there are not the fates that await them.
The Prime Minister is losing the broader political debate, and Labor is losing ground.
The Newspoll demographic and state analysis of the past three months, shows Labor going backwards in key areas, despite the national polls still showing an even split after preferences.
And it points to two significant challenges facing Albanese that will be difficult to overcome.
The first is that Victoria has now become the problem child for Labor.
The ALP’s primary vote in the state is lower than in NSW and only a point above that in its worst state, Queensland.
Albanese is no more popular than Peter Dutton in Victoria.
Their approval ratings are as bad as each others’ and the gap between who Victorians would prefer as their prime minister has narrowed significantly.
And the Prime Minister’s other problem state is NSW, where the Coalition’s primary vote has lifted to 40 per cent.
The second challenge for Labor overlaps with the first and is revealing in and of itself.
The 35- to 49-year-old voting demographic has turned sharply against Labor over the past six months.
Any pollster will tell you that it is this group that decides elections. It was this cohort that elected Scott Morrison in 2019, swung against him in 2022 and is now showing signs of deep displeasure with Albanese.
It’s hardly surprising. They are most likely to be families with mortgages.
Yet, to date, it is this voting bloc that will feel it has received the least policy attention from Labor.
The primary vote in the April-to-June analysis for this group had both Labor and the Coalition at 35 per cent. By July to September, this had moved to 33 per cent for Labor and 34 per cent for the Coalition. Not much change, but the dynamic had begun to shift.
In the space of three months, it has shifted to 31 per cent for Labor and 37 per cent for the Coalition.
In two-party-preferred terms, at the start of the year, Labor led the Coalition 56-44 per cent among these voters.
By June Labor’s lead had closed to 53-47 and by September it was 52-48. It is now a 50-50 split.
This is where the Opposition Leader needed to make up ground. And he has succeeded. He has also gradually crept up on Albanese as preferred leader. After Albanese held a 12-point lead at the start of the year, Dutton goes into the new year having halved this margin.
Labor may claim partial victory in other demographics by peeling off younger voters to its cause from the Greens. It appears to be winning this fight on the left. But in doing so, the Greens have been steered away from the centre.
The Greens’ success has not been in lifting its own support but knocking Labor off mission.
If the trend that has emerged over the course of almost a year continues, this will be a demographic group lost to Labor and increasingly difficult to recover.
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