Newspoll: Liberals at crossroads, leaving Dutton no time to waste

While Scott Morrison eventually became a problem for the party – after being the hero of 2019 – the party itself is now the problem.

The Newspoll analysis reveals by the numbers just how broad and deep the test is for the Opposition Leader. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

The challenge for Peter Dutton couldn’t be greater.

Next year will not only decide the fate of the Liberal Party but may also define the future of ­centre-right politics in Australia.

 

There is that much at stake for conservative politics. And dramatic action will be required.

The Liberal Party has been here before, having found itself in a similar funk following the 2007 election, the last time it went into opposition.

But the depth of the challenge is heightened by the enduring ­structural and organisational decay identified in the post-­mortem review of the May 21 federal election loss.

The Newspoll analysis reveals by the numbers just how broad and deep the test is for the Opposition Leader. At the same time it illustrates where opportunities still lie for Labor.

If Labor’s objective is to become a long-term government, as identified in its own post-election review, it needs to win seats in Queensland. This is where Albanese has already started to make inroads since the election. Labor’s primary vote has lifted six points to 33 per cent, which is a decade-long, high-water mark. This is significant in grasping a sense of the mood. Yet on the pendulum, it doesn’t translate into any more seats for Labor.

Only Dutton’s seat of Dickson falls within the band of the post-election two-party-preferred swing toward Labor – and it would be unlikely to fall. The primary-vote swings to Labor have come from minor conservative party voters – Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and the now deregistered United Australia Party, bankrolled by Clive Palmer.

Labor’s second surge has been in NSW, where the primary vote has risen five points since the election. Again, these gains in popular support don’t translate into significant seat gains when preferences are accounted for. Banks would be the only further seat to fall. With a state election due in March next year, the brand damage for the Liberal Party more broadly is ominous for the Perrottet government. In South Australia, Labor would gain only one seat – Sturt – and in Western Australia, the status quo prevails.

It is Victoria that remains the problem child for the Coalition, where the Greens and Labor draw more than 50 per cent combined on primary vote alone. The two-party-preferred vote is now 57-43, on a more modest primary vote gain for Labor, but the government would capture three more seats, Deakin, Casey and Menzies.

This is all bad news for Dutton.

 

The demographic portrait is also grim. John Howard’s broad church has been reduced to an enclave dominated by aged, Christian retirees, who hail mainly from Queensland.

As glib as they may sound, any serious assessment cannot ignore that shrinking demographics that once strongly favoured the Coalition. Generation X delivered Morrison the 2019 election; it abandoned him in 2022.

But with the former prime minister out of the picture, things haven’t improved.

This is telling. While Morrison eventually became a problem for the party – having once been its hero for winning 2019 – the party itself is now the problem.

There is something structurally more serious for the Coalition to grasp.

The Liberal review unsurprisingly identified the problem the party has with women voters, ­particularly in the professional set that delivered seats to the teals.

The Newspoll analysis reveals the numerical gap between the major parties – 38 per cent of women back Labor and 33 per cent the Coalition. This gap has only widened over time.

It may well be the golden age for Albanese and Labor. The question is whether it can be sustained.

One would have to assume the numbers won’t stay this strong for the next two years, but as they say, these are weird times.

For Dutton, the message from the review, and the polling analysis, is that there is no time to waste.