Newspoll: Labor maintains lead over Coalition, Malcolm Turnbull’s satisfaction falls again

The Coalition heads into today’s critical recalled sitting of Parliament and a likely July 2 election trailing Labor.

The latest Newspoll has Labor maintaining its lead in two-party terms by 51 per cent to the ­Coalition’s 49 per cent.

The Turnbull government heads into today’s critical recalled sitting of ­parliament and a likely July 2 election trailing Labor in the latest Newspoll, as two-thirds of voters say reducing government spending must be Canberra’s priority.

Malcolm Turnbull yesterday reaffirmed his determination to go to a double-dissolution election if the Senate sticks by its vow to ­reject industrial relations bills, as the latest Newspoll, taken ­exclusively for The Australian, shows Labor maintaining its lead in two-party terms by 51 per cent to the ­Coalition’s 49 per cent.

Satisfaction with Mr Turnbull’s performance has fallen for the fifth consecutive Newspoll, and while he would enter a ­formal campaign still ahead of Bill Shorten as the preferred prime minister his lead over his Labor rival has halved since the start of the year.

Two weeks before Scott Morrison hands down his first budget, and in the wake of a warning by Moody’s that increasing debt will put Australia’s AAA credit rating at risk, Newspoll found 65 per cent of voters say reducing government spending must be the priority for the next government.

Almost 40 per cent want the savings from reducing spending to pay down debt while one-­quarter say it should go to delivering tax cuts.

Some 23 per cent say there should be an increase in spending on government programs, with this option strongest among Labor and Greens voters.

Overall, 45 per cent of voters believe the Turnbull-led ­Coa­lition is more likely to spend respon­sibly and manage government debt than the Shorten-led ALP, which is favoured by 31 per cent. One-in-six Labor voters and one-in-four Greens supporters believe the Turnbull government would be better than a Shorten government.

The Treasurer last night told Sky News the government would “reduce the deficit over the ­forward estimates” in the budget.

Governor-General Peter Cosgrove will today reopen parliament for a special three-week session to debate industrial relations bills after the government drew on a rarely used provision to prorogue it and force a new sitting.

It will also bring forward the budget by a week, to May 3, to give it room to call a double-dissolution poll by the May 11 deadline.

The Newspoll of 1628 voters taken from last Thursday until yesterday confirms the slump in support for the Coalition first revealed by Newspoll.

The Coalition’s primary vote has remained unchanged at 41 per cent in the past fortnight, but is down five points this year from its peak of 46 per cent.

Labor’s support is also unchanged at 36 per cent after a fortnight where the Opposition Leader has prosecuted his plan to call a royal commission into banks if he wins the election.

The Greens were steady at 11 per cent, as was support for other parties and independents at 12 per cent.

Mr Turnbull remained the choice as better prime minister, but his support of 47 per cent was down one point; Mr Shorten gained one point to 28 per cent, which is his highest since Tony Abbott was toppled in mid-September.

The 39-point margin that Mr Turnbull enjoyed over Mr Shorten as better prime minister at the start of the year has been halved to 19 points.

Satisfaction with Mr Turnbull’s performance as prime minister has fallen for the fifth consecutive Newspoll survey, dropping another two points to 36 per cent.

It is down 17 points since the year’s start. Dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister rose one point to 49 per cent and is up 18 points this year.

Mr Turnbull’s net satisfac­tion rating, which measures the difference between those who are satisfied and those who are dissatisfied with his performance, deteriorated from minus 10 points a fortnight ago to minus 13 points.

At the start of the year it was positive 22 points and in mid-November it peaked at positive 38 points.

Mr Shorten’s rating was fairly flat, with his satisfaction down one point to 31 per cent and dissatisfaction also down one point to 52 per cent, leaving his net satisfaction rating unchanged at minus 21 points.

A special Newspoll question found 39 per cent of voters believe the priority for the next government should be to reduce spending to pay down debt, with 59 per cent of Coalition voters backing this option, but just 27 per cent of Labor voters.

Reducing spending and using the money to cut taxes was backed by 26 per cent, with the result consistent across the political parties, including the Greens, where 24 per cent support tax cuts despite the party’s official position being to increase taxes.

Some 23 per cent supported increasing spending on government programs, with this option the most favoured among Labor voters (35 per cent) and Greens supporters (41 per cent), but by only one in 10 Coalition voters.

An Ipsos/Fairfax poll released last night showed the Coalition and Labor tied at 50 per cent in two-party terms, with the Coalition primary vote on 42 per cent, Labor on 33 per cent and the Greens on 14 per cent.

Mr Turnbull yesterday met truck drivers in Canberra to promise changes to pay rules that owner-operators say could force them out of business.

He said the Liberals and Nationals were for “people that get on and have a go”.

Mr Shorten yesterday held a town-hall meeting in Craigieburn in the marginal Victorian seat of McEwen, where he declared he was “ready for the election”.

The Labor leader said Mr Turnbull and his team “have really stopped governing Australia” as he claimed the government wanted an election “because they really don’t know what else they’re meant to do”.

REACTION TO NEWSPOLL

• Cabinet minister Simon Birmingham acknowledged public “frustration” at the Coalition’s lack of policies, but made no apologies for proceeding more “solidly, calmly and thoughtfully” than Labor.

“I appreciate there is a level of frustration where everyone wants to know what are the future tax reform plans, what are the plans in other portfolio areas, all of which will be appropriately detailed in the context of the budget, and then of course further details in other areas coming during the election campaign. That’s all the normal course of events,” the Education Minister told Sky News.

“There were very high expectations (for Mr Turnbull) and in the end we still have to go through the proper process of government – that’s what we’ve been doing – but I have no doubt that Malcolm’s capabilities in economic leadership will ultimately be the deciding matter in this election.”

• Labor frontbencher Kim Carr said the poll confirmed Mr Turnbull had “squandered” the “extraordinary public support” with which he came to power.

• The Leader of the Opposition in the Senate, Penny Wong, said Labor remained the “underdog” of the election contest despite successive Newspolls putting the opposition ahead.

“It’s a one-term government and we all know hard that mountain is to climb,” she told ABC radio, alluding to the fact that no first-term federal government had been defeated since 1929.

“People looked to Malcom and had very high hopes for him. But since he’s been Prime Minister I think they’ve seen him float ideas – some very bad ideas, such as withdrawing funding from public schools – and really you have to ask: what is his plan for government?

“People are responding to the fact that this government doesn’t have a plan, there’s no agenda, there’s just a set of tactics.”

Senator Wong said there was an “enormous level of division” within the government, both at the leadership level and as the Liberal factions jostle for seats in parliament.

“The Labor Party had to learn from our mistakes in government – I completely acknowledge that – but are a very united, cohesive team under Bill and Tanya,” she said.