Anthony Albanese’s personal support as an alternative prime minister is now about the same or worse than 10 opposition leaders who were subsequently removed by their colleagues, resigned or lost the ensuing election.
Only six opposition leaders have been in a worse position than Mr Albanese this week on the question of better prime minister in Newspoll.
Four of those opposition leaders were challenged and replaced while two lost elections.
In the latest Newspoll survey, the Coalition’s primary vote was 42 per cent and Labor’s was 37 per cent with a two-party-preferred calculation of 50-50.
There hasn’t been a change in the two-party-preferred or the primary votes of more than the Newspoll margin of error since August last year, but the ratings of personal satisfaction and dissatisfaction as well as better prime minister have moved on occasions by three points or more.
In the latest Newspoll survey, voter satisfaction with Mr Albanese’s job as Opposition Leader fell three percentage points to 38 per cent and dissatisfaction rose from 43 to 45 per cent.
Scott Morrison’s voter satisfaction was virtually unchanged on 64 per cent and dissatisfaction steady on 32 per cent.
On the question of which would be the better prime minister, Mr Morrison’s support jumped four points to 61 per cent and Mr Albanese’s fell three points to 26 per cent — a lead of 35 points, the same as it was in August.
Since Newspoll surveys began in 1987, only eight opposition leaders have been in a worse position than Mr Albanese in a head-to-head contest with the prime minister.
Only John Howard, Tony Abbott and Kevin Rudd as opposition leaders have been behind on the question of who would be the better prime minister and won the next election.
But all those leaders were in a better position than Mr Albanese is now.
In 2007, Mr Rudd was only two points behind Mr Howard.
In 1995, Paul Keating’s biggest lead over Mr Howard was 8 points and he lost the election in 1996. And in 2013, the biggest lead Mr Rudd had over Mr Abbott was 22 points, but he lost the election.
All of the opposition leaders in a worse position than Mr Albanese, Mr Howard in 1987 against Bob Hawke, Kim Beazley against Mr Howard in 2006, Bill Shorten against Malcolm Turnbull in 2015, Mr Turnbull against Mr Rudd in 2009, Simon Crean against Mr Howard in 2003 and Brendan Nelson against Mr Rudd in 2008 were replaced by their colleagues or lost the election.
Mr Albanese is in a worse position than Alexander Downer against Mr Keating in 1994, Andrew Peacock against Hawke in 1990 and Mr Abbott against Julia Gillard in 2010. All those opposition leaders were replaced or lost at the election.
Although Mr Abbott lost the 2010 election, Labor was forced into a minority government and Mr Abbott won the next election against Mr Rudd, who replaced Ms Gillard, despite being behind Mr Rudd by 22 points as preferred prime minister.
Before losing the 2016 election to Mr Turnbull, Mr Shorten had trailed the then prime minister by 49 points. He trailed Mr Morrison by only 13 points in 2018 before his “surprise” loss in 2019.
While the measure of better prime minister in Newspoll has been a highly effective indicator to electoral success, it is not as certain, so far, that the ALP hasn’t been able to win an election with a primary vote of less than 40 per cent.
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