Newspoll: electoral status quo as voters back tax cuts but no reward for Labor on broken promise

A majority of voters have backed Anthony Albanese’s rejigged stage three tax cuts but are yet to reward Labor.

A majority of voters have backed Anthony Albanese’s decision to scrap the legislated stage three tax cuts and redirect relief from higher- to lower-income workers but are yet to reward Labor for breaking a key election pledge to deliver it.

An exclusive Newspoll for The Australian shows 62 per cent of voters believe the Prime Minister did the right thing, despite only 38 per cent of voters saying they would be better off. Yet the government has not derived a net political benefit from the move, with the two-party-preferred contest remaining unchanged since December and no improvement in Mr Albanese’s personal approval ratings.

While Labor’s primary vote nationally improved a point to 34 per cent at the expense of the Greens, which dropped a point to 12 per cent, the two-party-preferred split of 52-48 in Labor’s favour reflects the position the government was in at the end of last year.

The Coalition remains on a primary vote of 36 per cent while One Nation improved a point to 7 per cent and independents and minor parties remained stable on 11 per cent.

The first Newspoll of 2024 ends a six-week gap since the previous poll in December 2023. With parliament set to resume on Tuesday, the government will introduce legislation to replace the stage three tax cuts with its proposed new model, which seeks to redirect $84bn in tax cuts from higher-income earners to lower-income earners.

The Prime Minister’s decision to break an election pledge by tearing up the ­Coalition’s legislated stage three income tax cuts has dominated the political debate since he recalled caucus in January.

Mr Albanese will face accu­sations across the chamber from the Coalition that he lied to voters, having committed prior to the last election not to change or scrap stage three, which is due to come into effect on July 1.

The poll of 1245 voters conducted between January 31 and February 3 showed, however, that a majority of voters agreed it was the right thing to do. Only 29 per cent of voters believed he should have stuck to his promise not to amend the stage three cuts.

Mr Albanese has said the tax cuts were aimed at Middle Australia. This was supported by the poll results, which showed that 43 per cent of 35- to 49-year-olds said they would be better off and 44 per cent of 50- to 64-year-olds agreeing they would benefit.

The Prime Minister also claimed his policy shift was aimed at women voters. The Newspoll showed female voters were significantly more likely to support the tax cuts than men: 65-59 per cent.

Those aged between 50 and 64 were also the most supportive of the change while the younger demo­graphic – 18- to 34-year-olds – was least in favour.

Overall, 18 per cent of voters said they would be worse off as a result of the changes.

The Dunkley by-election of March 2 is the next key electoral contest, with the Coalition seeking to put the tax cuts and Mr Albanese’s credibility for abandoning an election promise on trial.

According to Newspoll, the Prime Minister’s net personal approval ratings dropped a point over the summer break to minus nine while the Opposition Leader’s ratings fell further from minus nine to minus 13.

The head-to-head contest between the two leaders remains unchanged at 46-35 in Mr Albanese’s favour.

Despite breaking the election pledge, Mr Albanese and Jim Chalmers say economic circumstances had changed, and cost-of-living pressures demanded a rewrite of the tax regime that it had voted for in opposition.

The Coalition partyroom will meet on Tuesday to formalise its position on the Labor plan.

Mr Dutton, however, strongly hinted last week that the Coalition was likely to wave the legislation through with the promise of a tax proposal of its own that would commit to also implementing the original stage three reforms – which abolish the 37 per cent tax rate – when the Coalition is next in government.

The Reserve Bank of Australia also meets on Tuesday, with interest rates likely to remain on hold following better than expected inflation numbers in January.

The government’s tax cut proposal was clearly aimed at Labor supporters.

At a party political level, 53 per cent of Labor voters say they would be better off under the revised tax plan compared to 28 per cent of Coalition voters.

Some 55 per cent of Greens voters say they will be better off, with 81 per cent saying the government did the right thing in amending the Coalition’s tax regime.

Only 22 per cent of people aged over 65 feel they would be better off with the changed tax model with 34 per cent – the highest of any demographic – saying the government should not have broken its promise.