What was once possible is now probable. For the first time, it is likely that neither the Coalition nor Labor will end up commanding a primary vote in the 40s on election day.
This will rewrite election history and extinguish a long-held truism of the two-party system.
While all elections are different, the low primary votes for both the major parties, coupled with two unpopular leaders, continues to demonstrate the depth of modern electoral disillusionment. If the 27 per cent of voters who have parked their votes with minor parties and independents might be looking to shift, they aren’t showing any sign of it yet.
This might be expected to tighten in the final weeks of the campaign but with history as a guide, rarely has the combined vote of the major parties been this low at this point in the cycle.
While the two-party-preferred vote points to a Labor victory at 53-47, for the Coalition the election is still winnable if it manages to reduce that margin to 51-49. At this level, it would be difficult for Labor to win a majority government. Without a significant break either way in the primary vote, the teal independents could pick up of a couple of seats.
So far, the Coalition primary vote remains stubbornly low, yet the trajectory for Labor has been pointing in a negative direction.
While it gained a point this week, its primary vote is down four points on the 41 per cent it recorded in March.
And Anthony Albanese’s personal numbers are still bouncing around the trough of his worst levels since becoming leader.
Scott Morrison’s lead over Albanese as preferred prime minister is the one thing keeping the Coalition’s hopes alive. After Albanese’s poor performance in the first week of the campaign, it was not altogether surprising that Morrison would have posted gains in the head-to-head contest.
While Albanese showed signs of improvement last week before being forced into isolation with Covid, Morrison has extended his lead. It is his strongest lead over Albanese all year, and it will be the critical number to watch over the coming weeks.
Traditionally, the opposition leader needs to be ahead or at least close on this metric on polling day to win an election.
The question is how much of a leading indicator this becomes of voting intention closer to May 21.
A Coalition victory hinges on Morrison’s ability to capitalise on doubts about whether the Labor leader is up to the job.
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