Newspoll: ALP in narrow lead but Albo would win easily

Bill Shorten personal ratings a drag on Labor’s vote, with poll pointing to thumping wins if Albo replaced him as leader.

Labor’s primary vote has risen to 40 per cent in Queensland. Picture: Aaron Francis

Bill Shorten is poised to secure narrow victories in the Longman and Braddon by-elections sparked by the opposition’s ­dual-citizen MPs, despite the Labor leader’s personal ratings becoming a drag on the party’s vote.

With Mr Shorten’s leadership hanging on today’s by-elections, minor-party preferences are set to decide tight contests in both seats, but a Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Weekend Australian suggests Labor would have ­recorded thumping wins in both seats if Anthony Albanese were the federal Labor leader.

The poll of more than 2000 voters across the two marginal seats, regarded as the most critical of today’s Super Saturday contests, shows Labor ahead on a two-party-preferred count of 51 per cent to 49 per cent in the ­outer metropolitan Queensland seat of Longman and by the same margin in the Tasmanian seat of Braddon.

Anthony Albanese.

The late slip in support for the Coalition in the final days of the campaign comes as the Catholic school sector in Queensland wrote to parents in Longman yesterday afternoon warning them that the Turnbull government was cutting $40 million in funding to schools in Brisbane. The poll conducted between Tuesday and Thursday shows the Coalition could still produce an upset win in Longman but it would require the LNP to secure about 80 per cent of One Nation preferences, which would be ­unlikely.

Both leaders delivered a final pitch to voters yesterday. Mr Shorten decided not to campaign in any of the five seats until arriving in Braddon last night. Earlier Malcolm Turnbull accused him of going missing in action on the last day. “Bill Shorten is the missing man,” the Prime Minister said.

“The reality is Bill Shorten knows that the people of Longman and the people of Braddon, right around the nation, have woken up to his lies, his negativity, his shocking lies.”

Mr Turnbull continued to try to play down the Coalition’s ­chances, pointing out that no federal government had won a by-election in an opposition-held seat since 1920.

Mr Shorten denied the by-elections were a proxy leadership contest between himself and Mr Turnbull. “It’s not about us — him and me,” Mr Shorten said.

“It’s about the people, in all seriousness, it’s whether or not you’re happy to see big tax cuts for big banks and big corporations or whether or not you want to see penalty rates restored, you want to see your wages moving again, you want to see hospitals and schools properly funded.” Given the closeness of the contests in Longman and Braddon, the result may come down to several thousand postal votes in both seats, which could take up to 13 days to count.

Despite the Opposition Leader’s unpopularity in the Sunshine State, Labor’s primary vote has risen to a record 40 per cent, with the LNP falling to 36 per cent, which is consistent with the state-wide average for the LNP.

One Nation’s Matthew Stephen poses with cardboard Pauline Hansons. Picture: AAP

Hopes of a One Nation bailout for the LNP have been dampened further, with support for the minor conservative party falling from 18 per cent in a Galaxy poll taken last week to 14 per cent, ­following revelations of Pauline Hanson’s secret European ­holiday in the final week of the campaign. This is still considerably higher than the 9.4 per cent One Nation polled at the 2016 federal election. Controversy over LNP candidate Trevor Ruthenberg may also become a deciding factor in ­depriving Mr Turnbull of a historic victory with the former Newman government MP’s false claims to being a recipient of a military ­distinguished service medal costing votes. The poll revealed that almost a quarter of voters polled, 22 per cent, said despite Mr Ruthenberg’s apology, the saga had made them less likely to vote LNP.

Labor is also expected to hold the Tasmanian seat of Braddon with independent Craig Garland and the Greens combining to cruel the Coalition’s chances. The Newspoll predicts a 51 per cent to 49 per cent two-party-preferred victory for Labor despite a lift in the primary vote for the Liberal Party since the election. Mr Garland had secured 8 per cent of the primary vote and the Greens 5 per cent, with Labor on 40 per cent and the Liberal Party on 43 per cent.

The poll points to a clean sweep for Mr Shorten in the four by-elections in Labor-held seats, which includes Perth and Fremantle where the Coalition is not running candidates. The fifth by-election in the South Australian seat of Mayo — where Labor is not fielding a candidate — is expected to see the ­Coalition fall short in its bid to win the seat back from Centre Alliance independent Rebekha Sharkie.

The results are unlikely to quell leadership rivalry in ALP ranks for long. The poll revealed Labor’s primary vote would have risen five points to 45 per cent in Longman if Mr Albanese was leader rather than Mr Shorten. The sentiment was stronger in Braddon, where the primary vote would have lifted seven points to 47 per cent.

The poll of 1015 voters in Longman, and 1002 in Braddon, suggested a two-party-preferred lead of 55 per cent to 45 per cent in both seats under Mr Albanese.

While Coalition voters were more likely to support Mr Shorten over Mr Albanese, there was a two-point shift of One Nation voters over to the Labor ledger under Mr Albanese. Most of the movement in voting intention came from Labor voters. Coalition MPs were still hopeful of winning at least one of the seats, while playing down their chances in an attempt to manage expectations and any political fallout from the results.

It appears the LNP’s campaign collapsed in the final week of the campaign in Longman, with Mr Ruthenberg’s medal dilemma costing the party critical support. Despite 61 per cent of voters claiming it would make no difference to their decision, and 16 per cent claiming the apology made them more likely to vote LNP, 22 per cent said they were less likely to vote for Mr Ruthenberg, opening up a six-point shift in sentiment.

Labor’s commanding primary vote of 40 per cent is a 4½-point improvement on its 2016 election result and comes despite anger with Labor’s candidate Susan Lamb after the High Court ruled in May that she had been ineligible to sit in parliament because she held dual citizenship at the time of her nomination in 2016.

Ms Lamb’s failure to refer herself to the High Court last year when the citizenship crisis broke, and her subsequent tearful explanation to parliament, gained her little sympathy in the seat. Almost half of voters in the electorate, 47 per cent, are dissatisfied with Ms Lamb, compared with 37 per cent who are satisfied, leading to a net negative approval rating of minus 10. By comparison, the Labor candidate and former sitting member for Braddon Justine Keay recorded a neutral approval rating, with 42 per cent satisfied and 41 dissatisfied.