Newspoll: Albanese has a clear view of victory

Anthony Albanese would give Labor a majority of 78 seats if statewide swings against the Coalition in a Newspoll analysis were replicated at the election.

The Newspoll analysis shows Anthony Albanese has achieved a two-party-preferred swing against the Coalition in all states except Victoria. Picture: Jono Searle

Anthony Albanese would take the nation’s top job and deliver a majority government of 78 seats to Labor if the statewide swings against the Coalition in this week’s Newspoll analysis were replicated at the next election.

Based on a comparison with the 2019 election result, the Newspoll analysis shows a two-party-preferred swing against the Coalition in all states except Victoria.

The heaviest swings are in the resources states of Queensland and Western Australia.

The analysis suggests, if the swings were uniform across each jurisdiction, Labor would win nine seats off the Coalition ­including three held by cabinet ministers — Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson in Queensland and the WA electorates of Pearce and Hasluck, which are held by Christian Porter and Ken Wyatt respectively.

This would allow Labor to govern in its own right without relying on independents or crossbench MPs, puncturing suggestions from Greens leader Adam Bandt that there would ­be a hung parliament at the next federal election.

The analysis of Newspoll surveys conducted between April 21 and June 26 shows that on a two-party-preferred basis, there has been a 1.8 per cent swing to Labor in NSW since the 2019 poll, but this would not be large enough to see any seats change hands.

Victoria is holding steady on the two-party-preferred vote, with a tiny 0.1 per cent swing to the Coalition.

 

However, in Queensland and WA there are statistically significant swings against the Coalition of 5.4 per cent and 8.6 per cent ­respectively.

This would result in Labor picking up four seats in Queensland including Longman, held by Terry Young; Leichhardt, held by Warren Entsch; Brisbane, held by Trevor Evans; and Dickson, held by Mr Dutton, the Defence Minister.

In WA, the swing would allow Labor to pick up the seats of Swan, held by Steve Irons, and Hasluck, held by Mr Wyatt, the Indigenous Australians Minister. It would also see Labor claim the seat of Pearce held by Mr Porter, the Industry Minister and former attorney-general.

In South Australia, there is a 3.3 per cent swing to Labor since the last election, which would help Mr Albanese to win the seat of Boothby, currently held by ­Nicolle Flint, who is leaving the parliament at the next election.

Assuming the national swing of 2.5 per cent to Labor is replicated in Tasmania, the Coalition would also lose the seat of Bass, which is held by Bridget Archer, to the ALP.

Labor currently has 68 seats in the federal parliament, but will go to the next election with a ­notional tally of 69 because of the creation of the new electorate of Hawke in Victoria, at the expense of the Liberal seat of Stirling in WA.

If Mr Albanese is successful in clawing back the nine seats Newspoll suggests are within reach, he could secure a majority government of 78 seats in the 151-seat House of Representatives.

The heaviest swings against Scott Morrison’s government are in the resources states of Queensland and Western Australia. Picture: Christian Gilles