Net overseas migration likely to surpass 375,000 in June, experts and Coalition say

Immigration experts and the Coalition have warned Australia is not on track to cut the net overseas migration number to 375,000 by June 30 under current policy conditions.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released figures last week showing net overseas migration had totalled 548,000 in the year to September 30. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Glenn Campbell

Immigration experts and the Coalition have warned Australia is not on track to cut the net overseas migration (NOM) number to 375,000 by June 30 under current policy conditions, with questions raised over whether the government will need to further tighten rules around international students or begin targeting other temporary visa holders like working holiday makers.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released figures last week showing the NOM had totalled 548,000 in the year to September 30, prompting backlash from the opposition, which accused the government of running a “big Australia” policy.

But Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil said the figures did not capture the many policies Labor had introduced to curb the NOM to 375,000 by June.

Opposition immigration spokesman Dan Tehan warned the NOM target was getting progressively out of reach.

“The Australians who are struggling to find a place to live or pay the rent want to hear a commitment from the Albanese government that they will meet expectations and cut NOM to 375,000 this financial year,” he said.

“They still have no answer to the question: where will all these people live?”

According to Coalition analysis, to reduce the NOM to 375,000 by June, the government would need to ensure NOM was no more than 76,600 over the remaining three-quarters in the 2023-24 financial year.

Figures also showed a total of 2,214,695 temporary visa holders in Australia as of January 31, not counting tourist and crew visa-holders, representing a reduction of 3.23 per cent since September.

The Coalition estimates that to meet the NOM estimate, there will need to be a reduction of 27 per cent by the end of the 2023-24 financial year.

A spokesman for Ms O’Neil said the migration data recorded so far was in line with all expectations, indicating confidence the government would reduce the NOM to 375,000 by June.

“This data does not capture the measures the government has introduced to get migration back down to sustainable levels and restore integrity to our international education sector,” the spokesman said.

Former deputy secretary of the Department of Immigration, Abul Rizvi, said he would be surprised if the government curbed NOM at the rate it hoped to, arguing the figure would be more like “400,000 to 500,000” by the middle of the year.

He noted student visa holders – which are significantly driving up NOM – totalled 571,000 by January 24 while net student arrivals in February 24 were over 147,000.

“Total students in Australia (is) likely over 700,000 for the first time in … history,” he said in a post on X.