Nationals tipped to be collectors in NSW Upper Hunter poll

NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro, centre, talks to constituents in Singleton ahead of the Upper Hunter election. Picture: Peter Lorimer

Gladys Berejiklian’s claim that it will take a “miracle” for the government to keep the seat of Upper Hunter at this weekend’s by-election amounts to an absurd overstatement that defies any reading of the polling numbers or the ­sentiment of voters already lining up at pre-polling stations.

Almost a century of political precedent suggests the Nationals will keep the seat, even if it means blowing on the embers of their dwindling margin. The question ahead of Saturday’s poll is not whether the party will emerge ­victorious — it probably will — but whether it can extend this flimsy majority of 2.5 per cent.

With a briar patch of 13 candidates in the field, including prominent independents and two rising conservative minor parties, what seems inevitable is that support that is ordinarily earmarked for the Nationals is bleeding out to the fringes.

Internal party polling suggests this is costing the Nationals, but not in numbers that suggest a wholesale abandonment of the party. Its primary vote is hovering around 35 per cent, slightly higher than the result it achieved in the 2019 election, and a figure consistent with the findings of a separate survey conducted by the NSW Minerals Council this month.

Briefed out to multiple sources, who confirmed the results to The Australian, that poll predicted a Nationals primary vote of 34 per cent, with the ALP clocking up 22 per cent of the votes and One Nation in third with 12 per cent.

But agitating the Nationals are the findings of a YouGov poll of 400 people, published in The Daily Telegraph on Tuesday, which suggests a fall in their primary vote to as low as 25 per cent, a result which, if accurate, would signal a historic upset is afoot.

What’s worth remembering is how assured the Nationals once were in the Upper Hunter, a conservative safe harbour of NSW known for its rural voters, mining workers and legal gun owners. In 2007, the Nationals secured about 60 per cent of votes in the region, followed by 54.7 per cent in 2011.

These numbers were squandered in 2015 with the arrival of Michael Johnsen, the former ­sitting MP who was elected with a primary vote of 38.9 per cent. This fell in 2019 to 34 per cent.

A rebound away from these ­declining voting trends would be emphatically welcomed by NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro, but a further deterioration would usher in a bout of blame-shifting within the state Coalition, especially given recent scandals likely to be playing on voters’ minds.

This includes the departure of Mr Johnsen, who quit politics in March after being accused of ­assaulting a sex worker, an allegation he denies, followed by the ­revelation last week that former families minister Gareth Ward remains under police investigation for allegations of sexual violence. He, too, denies this allegation, which has forced him out of cabinet and onto the crossbench.

Voters in the Upper Hunter may give passing thought to these unpalatable matters as they cogitate at the ballot box, but these are really regarded as “city issues” in the minds of rural voters. Of much higher priority are the hyper-local discussions over the Singleton ­bypass and ongoing tensions ­between local mining and agri­cultural interests in the region.

On the ground, officials handing out how to vote cards say they have witnessed a mild atmosphere among pre-poll voters. Few, if any, are expressing the expected anger or dismay routinely apparent ­during by-election contests, which traditionally swing hard away from the incumbent.

“Definitely no baseball bats for the Nats,” said one Labor official who spoke to The Australian this week. “But people are not flocking to support Gladys either.”