The Prime Minister’s summer of discontent is continuing into the new parliamentary year, as the sacking of Agriculture Minister and Nationals deputy leader Bridget McKenzie over her sports rorts conflict of interest deprives him of the stability he has been craving to reassert his authority.
McKenzie’s removal has exposed the brittle nature of the Nationals’ legendary cohesion, irreparably damaged Michael McCormack’s leadership (no matter what the result on Tuesday morning) and imperilled the Coalition’s agreement and standing. A new Nationals leader means not just a new leadership style but a new written Coalition agreement that will cover policies and portfolios.
Even before McKenzie was officially finished on Sunday, the real questions being asked were not about the vacant position of deputy but about McCormack’s position as leader.
Barnaby Joyce, after a period of relative public quiet, made it clear that if there was a leadership spill on Tuesday morning, he would stand — even if he got just one vote.
The former Nationals leader will now stand if the motion is put, and the result will determine the fate of the Nationals and Morrison.
The real problem for McCormack, and Morrison, is that this is not just about a former leader trying to make a comeback, as well as a bitter personal rivalry.
It is also about wider discontent with McCormack’s leadership style, Liberal dominance of the Coalition and lack of appeal to regional and rural Australia.
McCormack’s weakness — even to the extent of confusion over Morrison’s ill-fated Hawaiian holiday while he was acting prime minister — has become Morrison’s weakness.
There are various scenarios possible from the Nationals’ partyroom meeting and none of them are good or easy for McCormack, either in the short or long term.
Obviously, defeat is catastrophic and even a strong showing for Joyce of more than half a dozen votes in a caucus of 21 will be disastrous for McCormack.
Just the fact that some Nationals are prepared to publicly call for a leadership spill will start the rot, should McCormack survive.
Even the “simplest” outcome for the McKenzie replacement — David Littleproud being elected as Nationals deputy leader, Matt Canavan taking her place as Nationals Senate leader and for Darren Chester to return to the cabinet — is no longer an option after Canavan’s “all in” resignation as resources minister to give Joyce momentum.
The resignation of this bright young star ensures a leader will be irreparably damaged by Joyce’s challenge.
It is now a matter of solving the issue here and now.
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The Nationals are in a state of chaos concerning their fractured leadership, and Scott Morrison is suffering as a result.