The Nationals’ early position to oppose it signals a significant shift in the debate. The centre right is being forced into a position amid accusations that Labor has let the issue drift.
And with the Indigenous community also split, inactivity to progress it will create a longer-term political problem for the Albanese government.
The chances of it succeeding are being jeopardised as the history of referendums suggests that without the support of both major parties they tend to fail.
The question is whether the Nationals’ position, and that of the Queensland LNP, will pressgang Peter Dutton.
Those close to the Opposition Leader say he is unlikely to be swayed one way or the other by the Nationals.
And it would be wrong to conclude that Dutton will now be anxious to speed up the process.
He’s in no rush to land on a position and doesn’t have to while the Liberal Party position is evolving in response to the vacuum left by the government. The Nationals’ position would be otherwise inconsequential in opposition for the Liberals’ partyroom, which will meet today without expectation of forming a position of its own.
The relationship between the parties is manifestly different than when they are in government. Neither is bound by a coalition agreement. The Nationals can have their own position, and the Liberals theirs.
It does, however, change the optics.
And the Nationals’ decision will further sharpen the base, with very few, if any, centre-right MPs in the Coalition supportive of the yes case.
Dutton can see where this is going.
And conservatives on the Liberal side pushing for a binding opposition to the voice will be emboldened. John Howard has made his views clear on the matter. That there can be no free vote for Liberal MPs.
Dutton is yet to form the Liberal Party position, but the outcome is inevitable.
And while the Liberal leader in the past has not been unsympathetic to the principle or the symbolism, he is likely to defer to the practicalities. His starting point is that it is difficult to come to a position without the necessary detail.
But few conservative MPs believe there can be any other outcome than rejection of the Albanese model.
If nothing else, the Nationals staking out their ground serves to formalise the divisions within the Coalition.
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