Morrison’s test for independents

Scott Morrison calls on independents to declare who they will support in a hung parliament.

Former Liberal deputy Julie Bishop, centre, rallies the troops flanked by Scott Morrison in the electorate of Swan yesterday. Picture: Getty Images

Scott Morrison has called on ­independent candidates to declare whether they would support the ­Coalition or Labor in the event of a hung parliament, as the election contest tightens and the chance of a minority government rises.

With at least 17 seats “too close to call” in the final days of the ­campaign, both leaders are asking people not to vote for independents to avoid the “chaos” of ­minority government.

The latest Newspoll surveys show Labor still in front by 51 to 49 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis after making strong gains in Queensland, Victoria and Western Australia since the last election, but key marginal seats are leaning to the Coalition and preferences will decide the result.

Campaigning in Western Australia last night, the Prime Minister said the election was going to be tight and it was “reasonable and fair” to question independents on who they would support if neither party achieved a majority.

“You never know what you’re going to get,” Mr Morrison said.

In reference to independents in conservative electorates who ensured Julia Gillard held government in 2010, he added: “People vote for an independent thinking they’ll ­respect the wishes of their local electorate ultimately about who should form a government. And they end up going and putting the Labor Party in.”

Mr Morrison was last night joined on the campaign trail for the first time by former foreign minister Julie Bishop, who has been conspicuously absent from Liberal Party events since the election was called on April 11.

GRAPHIC: The seats that will decide the election

Ms Bishop, who remains popular in her home state of Western Australia, lavished praise on Mr Morrison, who beat her in the three-way contest for the prime ministership in August. “Scott’s been campaigning so well. I’m feeling very confident. I’ve been saying for a long time that we will win this election,” Ms Bishop said at a Liberal function in Perth.

Echoing the Prime Minister, Ms Bishop said it was essential for independents to say who they would back in the event of a hung parliament.

Earlier, Bill Shorten attacked the ­Coalition’s preference vote swaps with Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and said they could “call the shots” in a minority ­Coalition government.

“The real issue is that this character (Mr Palmer) is going to be calling the shots in a ­Morrison-Palmer-Hanson government,” the Opposition Leader said.

“People don’t want any more chaos. It doesn’t matter if you’re Liberal, Labor, whatever you are; people are sick of Can­berra focusing on itself and just fighting each other. Love us or hate us, the Labor Party is united.”

An analysis of potential gains and losses nationally shows the Coalition holds 15 of the 17 seats that are “too close to call” and will need to hold them all to get a ­majority even after picking up wins from independents and Labor. NSW is Mr Morrison’s strongest state. The Coalition ­expects to win Lindsay from Labor and Wentworth from independent Kerryn Phelps, although a loss to former independent Rob Oakeshott, who ensured the Gillard government survived, is likely in the seat of Cowper. Campaigning yesterday in the Sydney seat of Warringah, held by former prime minister Tony Abbott, former prime minister John Howard ­issued a warning to voters about the dangers of electing independents to parliament.

“This election could be very close, and therefore any seats that end up being won by independents, there is no guarantee that they will end up supporting the Liberal Party,” Mr Howard said.

During a visit to Lindsay yesterday, Mr Morrison cited a Newspoll seat survey published in The Australian yesterday showing the Coalition ahead 52 to 48 per cent in the marginal western Sydney Labor seat. He said the Liberals were in a position to win the seat back, along with the north Queensland Labor seat of Herbert, where Newspoll also had the Coalition in front by 52-48. “This is going to be a very close election,” Mr Morrison said. “Over the last eight months, we’ve seen things get very, very tight.”

Both campaign headquarters will roll out intensive advertising campaigns in the final days. The ­financially bolstered Liberal Party will hammer the cost of Labor’s tax plans and Mr Shorten being “the bill you can’t afford”, while the ALP attacks the government’s ­record on climate change and ­accuses Mr Palmer of “helping create” global warming. The Labor ad then links Mr Palmer and Senator Hanson, who have done preference deals with the Coalition parties.

In a focus group in the marginal Sydney electorate of Reid, Labor says respondents described Mr Palmer as a conman, laughable, shady, untrustworthy, crackers and gross.

Victoria is the Coalition’s biggest problem, with as many as five seats in danger of falling to Labor, with only the independent-held rural seat of Indi an expected gain.

Both sides of politics are expecting primary vote swings of 10 per cent or more in some inner-Melbourne seats, where Labor and the Greens are expected to poll strongly. The Liberals are concerned about Higgins, where Kelly O’Dwyer is retiring, and Labor believes it will win Dunkley, notionally Labor after a redistribution, and Chisholm, vacated by Liberal defector Julia Banks. While the Coalition believes it can hold Corangamite, also notionally marginal Labor, it will be extremely hard for Liberal MP Sarah Henderson to hold. “It’s too early to make a definitive call. It will be won or lost this week on the ground,’’ a senior Liberal said.

In Queensland, the Coalition seems likely to win Herbert and possibly Longman, although it could lose Flynn in regional Queensland. In Western Australia, Labor appears set to win the Liberal seat of Swan, which is being contested by Hannah Beazley, daughter of former ALP leader Kim Beazley. The seats of Pearce and Hasluck are too close to call.

In Tasmania, there are two Labor seats in play — Braddon and Bass, which Mr Morrison will have to win if he suffers too many losses elsewhere.

In the Northern Territory the Coalition expects to win the Darwin seat of Solomon. South Australia is not expected to have any seats change hands.

Additional reporting: John Ferguson, Michael McKenna