Morrison’s pick no shoo-in for Senate vacancy

Sarah Henderson will face a close contest for a Victorian Senate vacancy, despite having the public backing of Scott Morrison.

Former Corangamite MP Sarah Henderson.

Former assistant housing minister Sarah Henderson is likely to face a close contest for a Victorian Senate vacancy, despite having the public backing of the Prime Minister, Treasurer, and senior Victorian ministers.
Former Victorian Liberal Party country vice president Greg Mirabella — the husband of former frontbencher Sophie Mirabella — has emerged as a rival for Ms Henderson for the seat being vacated by former communications minister Mitch Fifield.

While supporters of Ms Henderson praise her efforts in the marginal seat of Corangamite where she narrowly lost in May following an electoral commission redistribution, opponents argue her endorsements from Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg and powerbroker Michael Kroger do not guarantee her the position, pointing to unsuccessful interventions from Mr Morrison in the NSW seats of Wentworth and Gilmore, where he was ignored by local members who did not vote for his preferred candidates.

Ms Henderson announced her candidacy on May 27, the day after Mr Morrison announced his new cabinet and the appointment of Senator Fifield as Australia’s ambassador to the United Nations.

Senator Fifield is due to give his valedictory speech next week before parliament rises for the winter recess, with nominations for the Senate vacancy set to close on Friday ahead of a ballot decided by 500 Victorian Liberal Party members on September 8.

A timeline is yet to be set for the preselection to replace NSW senator Arthur Sinodinos, who will replace Joe Hockey as Australia’s US ambassador in January.

Former senator Jim Molan, Sutherland Shire councillor Kent Johns, former Labor Party president-turned Gilmore Liberal candidate Warren Mundine and former Eden-Monaro MP Peter Hendy are all considered likely to run.

With Victoria’s current Liberal Senators all based in suburban Melbourne, Ms Henderson has said she will base herself in Geelong and advocate for regional Victorians.

Former army officer and Victorian Farmers Federation delegate Mr Mirabella divides his time between Melbourne and Wangaratta, where his wife Sophie was previously the Member for Indi.

Victorian Liberal MPs from both the Henderson and Mirabella camps, and several who say they are supporting neither candidate, told The Australian they expect the contest to be close.

“I wouldn’t be putting money on either of them, frankly,” said one Liberal, citing Victorian party president Robert Clark’s win at last month’s state council meeting as evidence factional allegiances are not clear-cut.

“Sarah’s being pushed and some of the key people behind her spectacularly failed to get their people up at State Council, so it’s anyone’s game,” the Liberal said.

“Members are very independently minded, and they don’t appreciate being told how to vote,” said another Liberal MP.

Mr Mirabella is understood to have the support of a group of moderates previously aligned with Senate President Scott Ryan, former minister Kelly O’Dwyer and numbers man Frank Greenstein.

The Australian has been told Senator Ryan and his fellow Victorian senators Jane Hume, James Paterson and David Van have agreed not to publicly back any candidate, with Senator Ryan due to take an overseas holiday in the weeks before the ballot.

Liberals who back Ms Henderson have suggested the preselection of Mr Mirabella would be in Senator Ryan’s interests, as Ms Henderson would be more likely to challenge him for top spot on the Coalition’s 2022 Senate ticket, with the loser dropped to the marginal third position behind Nationals deputy leader Bridget McKenzie.

Similar political dynamics apply in NSW, where the winner of the contest to replace Senator Sinodinos will find themselves in competition with Foreign Minister Marise Payne and former minister for international development Concetta Fierravanti-Wells for the top two winnable positions in 2022.

One Liberal was dissatisfied with both leading candidates for the Victorian senate vacancy, citing Ms Henderson’s electoral loss in Corangamite and Mr Mirabella’s failure in last year’s Rural City of Wangaratta council election as evidence neither was up to the job.

“There’s this argument that Sarah would help us win back Corangamite or that Greg would help us in Indi, but the electorate voted Sarah out at the last election, voted against Greg’s wife twice, and Greg couldn’t even get himself elected to the Wangaratta council,” the Liberal said.

“The argument that they’re the ones to fly the Liberal flag in those electorates isn’t a good one.”

Former Member for Dunkley Chris Crewther, former Victorian upper house MP Inga Peulich, and former senate candidate Kyle Hoppitt are also expected to nominate, but not considered likely to be key contenders.