Morrison’s mission impossible: how to handle Pauline

Pauline Hanson leaves after a press conference at Parliament House.

Scott Morrison is facing a new but foreseeable test of his leadership.

It is hard to see how the Coalition can get to 50 per cent plus one in an election without a strong flow of preferences from One Nation.

Yet he now grapples with an impossibility.

As Prime Minister he can hardly endorse a Coalition ticket that doesn’t put One Nation last, or at least ahead only of something more extreme.

Morison now finds himself in John Howard’s shoes from more than 20 years ago when Pauline Hanson appeared on the national stage at the same time that Howard was upsetting the right-wing apple cart over gun control.

But by the time he got around to dealing with Hanson, the Liberal Party was in deep trouble. In the end, Howard put her last on the Coalition ticket and set about winning back the disaffected voters through the tax and transfer system.

And now Howard’s legacy on guns will endure for generations.

Morrison has echoed Howard’s rhetoric in part by making a deliberate and strong distinction between One Nation, the party, and those who vote for it and those who may be intending to.

And like Howard he refrained from personally attacking Hanson. But there remains a confounding situation for the Coalition parties.

If the polls tighten ahead of the federal election, which they are likely to, the outcome may very well end up being decided by which side has the right preference strategy.

It is compounded by the stratospheric swings to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party in several NSW seats at the weekend’s state election. Add Clive Palmer and the 6 per cent he is commanding in Queensland and the size of the challenge begins to emerge.

From a campaign perspective, the Prime Minister has to find a form of words that does not drive these people further to the fringes. He must find policies that address their core concerns.

At the same time he has to remain a leader for the nation.

Howard addressed it by changing the conversation. He gave Coalition voters a reason to hang on. But this isn’t a debate confined to the Coalition. One Nation preferences also go to Labor and in considerable number.

While Bill Shorten would never articulate it, he is playing on the same field.