Middle Sydney the key to Dominic Perrottet staying in offic

The future of NSW Premier Dom­inic Perrottet could hinge on a corridor of middle Sydney seats and the vote for One Nation, as the election focus pivots away from the city’s western fringe.

Labor leader Chris Minns and NSW Premier, Dominic Perrottet at The Daily Telegraph's Future Western Sydney 2023 lunch at Rosehill Gardens. Picture: Justin Lloyd

The future of NSW Premier Dom­inic Perrottet could hinge on a corridor of seats in middle Sydney and the vote for One Nation, as the focus of the election pivots away from the city’s western fringe.

With the March 25 election less than three weeks away, Labor and Liberal strategists, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said they sensed the election tightening in line with the polls and that all possible outcomes – except a ­Coalition majority – are still on the table.

One senior Liberal MP said the vote appeared to be mirroring the federal election: holding up quite well in Sydney’s west but seeing significant swings across middle Sydney.

The problem for the government was in the seats of Penrith and East Hills, both held on razor-thin margins, meaning a small swing against the government could prove decisive.

Of the 12 seats held by the ­Coalition on less than an 8 per cent margin, eight are in Sydney’s southwest and western beltway. Two – Penrith and East Hills – are on less than a 1 per cent margin.

With only a 0.5 per cent buffer in his Penrith electorate, the fate of former Trade Minister Stuart Ayres appears to be hanging in the balance, with Liberal MPs saying his position was the most precarious of Liberal MPs in Sydney’s west just 19 days out from polling day.

Stuart Ayres. Picture NCA Newswire/Gaye Gerard

“Stuart is in a lot of trouble. The problem with a few of these seats is that it doesn’t take much to win them,” one Liberal MP said.

The concern for the Coalition had shifted from Sydney’s west, with a beltway of seats between Ryde and Penrith likely to determine the election. Labor and Liberal sources said the swing now appeared to be on in seats like Ryde, Parramatta and Oatley.

“Parramatta is dead,” one ­senior Liberal minister told The Australian.

Analogous to the May federal election, the Chinese vote was still proving an issue for the Coalition, impairing the party’s ability to win seats like Ryde – held on a 9 per cent margin but vacated by retiring minister Victor Dominello.

The perspective was on par with the view of Labor strategists, who believed there could be big swings in similar seats, with negligible swings in Sydney’s west. The notionally Labor-held seat of Leppington was turning into an arm wrestle, with neither side con­fident of victory.

What could prove decisive was the vote of Mark Latham’s One Nation, with polls repeatedly putting the minor party’s vote at about 8 or 9 per cent in Sydney’s west. One Liberal source said One Nation’s success was likely to come at the expense of the Liberal primary vote, heightening the risk of losing critical seats like Penrith, East Hills and ­Holsworthy

The future of NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet could hinge on a corridor of seats in middle Sydney and the vote for One Nation, as the focus of the election pivots from the city’s western fringe. Picture: NCA/NewsWire/Natalie Grono

The Coalition goes into the election with a notional minority of 46 seats, including two seats held by former Liberal MPs who sit as independents.

Even assuming that these seats are won back, the ­Perrottet gov­ernment must secure a net gain of at least one more seat in order to ­secure a majority. In the city’s eastern suburbs, Liberal strategists said efforts to win back the marginal seat of ­Coogee – held by Labor MP Marjorie O’Neill on a 2.3 per cent buffer – had been abandoned, with the electorate’s resources being re­distributed into sandbagging seats in the inner-western beltway.

Vaucluse candidate Kellie Sloane was doing well and likely to be elected, one Liberal source said.

But confidence about the fate of seats threatened by teal and independent varied, with attempts to keep North Shore, Pittwater, Willoughby and Wakehurst all said to have a degree of risk.