‘Middle finger’ to come out of Queensland

If the populists jockeying for the “middle finger” vote are to make a mark, it’ll be in Queensland, the heartland of protest politics.

Bob Katter. Picture: Kym Smith

• Federal Election 2019 Full Coverage

If the populists jockeying for the “middle finger” vote are to make a mark on May 18, it will be in Queensland, the heartland of protest politics.

The big fish in this relatively small pond are well known to the electorate because they have been around for so long: think Pauline Hanson, Clive Palmer and Bob Katter. Their influence is not to be underestimated, however. One Nation, Katter’s Australian Party and Mr Palmer’s United Australia Party won’t win house seats, but their preferences could be decisive in tight contests between Labor and the Liberal National Party, ­especially on the home turf of ­Senator Hanson and Mr Katter in regional Queensland.

Mr Palmer’s deep pockets — he professes to have an eye-watering $60 million to spend on his latest political project — ensures UAP will have national reach in the election campaign. It is possible, though far from likely, that the Palmer party will feature in Senate calculations in Queensland, Tasmania and Western Australia. One Nation and KAP will certainly be in the mix for the final upper house spot in Queensland.

Senator Hanson, however, will battle perceptions that her star has waned. She was re-elected to parliament in 2016, after two decades of trying, alongside three other One Nation senators courtesy of Malcolm Turnbull’s decision to call a double-dissolution poll, halving the quota for a Senate place. Unless her running mate from the last election, dual citizenship casualty Malcolm Roberts, gets up, she will be on her own next term; Senator Hanson won’t face voters again until the election due in 2022.

Mr Palmer’s intentions are characteristically opaque. He ­initially said he would run in the ultra-marginal Townsville-based seat of Herbert — despite lingering local anger over his company’s failure to pay entitlements owed to hundreds of workers who lost their jobs in the collapse of the QNI nickel refinery two years ago. But he never followed through.

Speculation Mr Palmer was ­actually eyeing a tilt at the upper house has been kicked along by UAP’s failure so far to name a candidate for Herbert or finalise its Queensland Senate ticket. A spokesman for Mr Palmer said ­announcements would be made next week.

Mr Katter’s low-profile outfit could be the minority party to watch, especially in north Queensland. KAP is coming off a solid ­result in the 2017 state election and is neck and neck with One Nation in recent polls.

At the last federal election, One Nation in most cases preferenced sitting MPs next to last to the Greens, hitting the LNP harder ­because it holds the lion’s share of seats in Queensland — 21 of the state’s 31 federal divisions, heading into this poll.

Labor, which invariably preferences One Nation last, won Herbert and outer-metropolitan Longman in 2016 on One Nation preferences. The Australian understands Senator Hanson will allocate preferences on a seat-by-seat basis this time.

KAP traded preferences with One Nation at the 2017 state election, but in the past has run an open ticket favouring neither major party. Personal niggle ­between Mr Palmer and Senator Hanson has led to both ruling out any such co-operation between UAP and One Nation.

Right-wing populists can trace much of their popularity in Queensland to the state’s demographics: more people live outside the capital city there than anywhere else in Australia.