It’s simply not true for Labor to say state by-elections, such as Saturday’s Upper Hunter poll, do not have an impact on federal politics – the 2010 NSW Labor loss at the Penrith by-election led directly to the removal of Kevin Rudd as prime minister.
It was used as the trigger in the Labor parliamentary caucus to move against Rudd as his personal popularity fell, his relations with MPs soured and he lost the war with mining giants over his $10 billion tax.
Even more importantly for Labor, the disastrous, record loss under then-premier Kristina Keneally exposed a fatal flaw in Labor policy and the so-called Labor brand.
On June 19, 2010, state Labor lost Penrith with a swing of 25.7 per cent against it but the real message to Labor and Liberal MPs on polling booths in the western suburbs, including Liberals Marise Payne and Joe Hockey, was that illegal boat arrivals were a red-hot issue and Rudd was seen to have failed to protect the borders.
Anthony Albanese is not in the same danger as Rudd was, although he has much lower personal standing in the polls, trails Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, and is developing a fractious caucus.
But the Opposition Leader needs to stop denying that Saturday’s by-election swing against Labor is not a concern and has to recognise the problem Labor faces.
Voters in the Hunter Valley, who supported Rudd in 2007, simply do not believe the ALP will stand up for blue-collar workers by defending jobs and supporting reliable, affordable energy such as gas-fired power.
In some booths in the Upper Hunter, there was 50 per cent support for Rudd in 2007 in the federal seat of Hunter; last Saturday, Labor support was down to 20 per cent.
What’s more, Albanese has to realise the problem is not a rebellious rump – essentially Hunter MP Joel Fitzgibbon – or a media campaign but genuine voter concern masked by superficially friendly two-party-preferred support in the polls.
It is also a weakness that the Prime Minister is amplifying and extrapolating from the state seat of Upper Hunter to mining and industrial regions in key areas where the Coalition has to hold or make ground at the next federal election.
In parliament on Tuesday, while Labor still gave priority to sexual assault, Morrison and Energy Minister Angus Taylor were talking about Labor as a threat to jobs not just in the Hunter but in Portland in Victoria and Gladstone in Queensland.
Morrison is broadcasting the evidence of Labor’s weakness in the state by-election to a national audience of miners, farmers, power workers and small businesses as Albanese denies it is relevant.
The Rudd government failure on border protection crippled the Julia Gillard years and Rudd’s ultimate return. S
Stopping boats became Tony Abbott’s successful mantra and was exploited by his then immigration spokesman, Morrison.
Morrison knows what a state by-election can mean.
Albanese needs to get the same understanding.
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