Melbourne rail project cost tipped to hit $100bn
The first two sections of the Andrews government’s signature Suburban Rail Loop are likely to cost $50bn and will not be completed until 2053, according to an investment case.
The first two sections of the Andrews government’s signature Suburban Rail Loop are likely to cost $50bn and will not be completed until 2053, according to an investment case released on Thursday.
Details of the largest infrastructure project ever proposed by a state government came on the same day Victoria’s Auditor-General warned major Andrews government projects were not being properly planned to cater for skyrocketing demand for materials and labour, and were at risk of critical shortages.
They also came a week after toll road company Transurban confirmed a cost blowout of at least $3.3bn on the beleaguered West Gate Tunnel, and coincided with the release on Thursday of Infrastructure Victoria’s 30-year blueprint, which recommended an extra rail tunnel as part of a $100bn plan to cater for a population forecast to grow from 6.6 million to 10.8 million by 2051.
When the Andrews government first proposed the Suburban Rail Loop ahead of the 2018 state election, the estimated cost for the entire 90km from Cheltenham in the southeast to Werribee in the southwest was $50bn.
But the investment case forecasts a cost of up to $50bn just to build the first two sections, from Cheltenham to Box Hill and on to Melbourne Airport – meaning the cost of the whole project is likely to be closer to $100bn.
Transport Infrastructure Minister Jacinta Allan said the investment case showed the project “absolutely stacks up”.
“Victoria can’t afford to not to build the Suburban Rail Loop because to not build … would forgo hundreds of thousands of jobs, it would forgo a massive construction pipeline and activity around that, but it would also forgo the opportunity to provide jobs and services close to where people live,” Ms Allan said.
Opposition transport infrastructure spokesman David Davis said the document was “not a proper or honest business case”, citing the tunnel to argue the government’s costings were “routinely billions of dollars out”.
He also seized on Auditor-General Andrew Greaves’ assessment of the Department of Transport and other infrastructure agencies, which found they failed to account for skill and supply shortages.
“The audited agencies are not sufficiently planning for the material and human resources they need to deliver major government infrastructure projects,” the Auditor-General found. “The consequence … is that the risk of cost overruns and delays will be higher than it needs to be … no agency fully understands the construction sector’s ability to deliver the government’s pipeline, or how effective their work to mitigate resource shortages is. The agencies’ advice does not consistently disclose these knowledge gaps. This reduces the reliability of their advice to government.”
Separately, Infrastructure Victoria’s 30-year strategy — also released on Thursday — includes a proposal to build 3km of new train tunnels in Melbourne’s City Loop.
It has also proposed a second Metro Rail project that would see an underground line built from Clifton Hill to the city, and on to Fishermans Bend and Newport.
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