Matthew Guy’s honeymoon evaporates as weaknesses exposed

Victorian Opposition Leader Matthew Guy. Picture: David Geraghty

The fallout from Tim Smith’s drink-driving disaster is exposing some of the greatest weaknesses of a Victorian Liberal Party riven by deep, nasty factional divisions and suffering from a severe lack of talent, just over a year from the next state election.

To compound the frustration of the party faithful, the toxic mess comes just days after the Liberals appeared to be making progress for the first time since Matthew Guy led them to the loss of 10 seats at the 2018 election.

Having regained the leadership from Michael O’Brien in September – courtesy of a spill motion moved by Smith – Guy was enjoying a bounce in polling that made the Coalition competitive, if not ascendant, as weary Victorians emerged from the state’s sixth Covid lockdown.

As one of very few Coalition frontbenchers capable of delivering a cut-through line, Smith was generating national headlines for the right reasons, leading the charge, alongside leading members of Melbourne’s legal fraternity, against Premier Daniel Andrews’s pandemic legislation.

Now, less than 72 hours after the kind of catastrophic error of judgment some of those closest to the brash member for Kew had long feared he would one day make, not only is Smith living through a worst nightmare of his own making but his presence in parliament threatens to hang albatross-like around the neck of his leader for as long as it endures.

Guy is faced with a minefield of choices, none of which is without negative consequences.

Should he do as much of his partyroom and the public are urging and call for Smith to quit politics, he will be betraying one of very few staunch allies and ending the career of someone he previously saw as a future leader of the party, amid private calls from several powerful federal Liberals for Smith to be allowed to remain.

Should Guy leave the decision to Smith, the Liberal Party’s administrative committee, and/or the Liberal preselectors of Kew, he will be portrayed – not only by Labor but by enemies within his own deeply divided partyroom – as a weak leader incapable of prioritising the good of the party over the fate of a mate.

Federal MPs are also treading a very fine line on the issue, with any overt support for their factional ally Smith likely to go down like a lead balloon with voters ahead of their own imminent election.