Mark McGowan departs at the peak of his powers

Mark McGowan delivers his state Budget in parliament in 2022. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Sharon Smith

While it’s understandable to expect a certain degree of negativity directed at Mark McGowan following his shock resignation on Monday, it’s not hard to see why his popularity in Western Australia was stratospheric during the pandemic.

Life in the west went largely unaffected by Covid-19 because McGowan closed the borders, and he brushed aside criticisms for doing so.

While other states suffered from debilitating lockdowns, life in Western Australia went on largely as normal.

McGowan always knew which side of the Nullarbor his bread was buttered on. Approval ratings north of 90 per cent was unheard of before McGowan’s ascent, and he remains very popular today – retiring from politics on top.

State Labor is a near certainty to win the next election, due in 2025. The state Liberals were reduced to just two seats in the 59-seat Legislative Assembly at the last election, and they weren’t even able to settle on which one of them should be leader.

A drover’s dog could lead Labor to another election victory.

McGowan has done his state colleagues a favour, suddenly retiring on his own terms, even if they don’t see it that way right now. Those who joined him at Monday’s media conference were in tears. But he has given whoever takes over time to grow into the role before a very winnable election. This is the kind of succession planning you don’t always see in politics.

Federally, McGowan’s Labor colleagues may not be so grateful about the timing of his departure. The premier’s popularity was undoubtedly a key factor in Anthony Albanese’s success in the west at last year’s federal election, picking up four Liberal-held seats. McGowan headlined the Labor launch and campaigned strongly. Without his incumbency, when the next federal election rolls around, things might be tougher for Labor.

Mark McGowan and Anthony Albanese at Optus Stadium, Perth. Picture: Liam Kidston.

I may be one of the few analysts to conclude WA has been well served by its past two premiers from either side of the partisan divide.

Colin Barnett spent up big developing WA infrastructure for the future, albeit while accumulating a sizeable amount of debt. McGowan took over – using an iron fist to survive the pandemic unscathed – before paying down large parts of Barnett’s debt with a surplus strategy built around not exceeding spending targets.

Both leaders stood up for WA, thumbing their noses at Canberra.

Though there was no love lost between the pair, the state has benefited from a quality of leadership we haven’t seen federally in decades.

So will McGowan now consider a move into federal politics?

While federal Labor would have a lot to gain from McGowan shifting to the national stage, there isn’t a lot in it for him.

He claims that’s not on his radar, telling journalists at Monday’s press conference that he’s exhausted. The combination of pandemic management and the fast pace of modern politics make such sentiments entirely believable. He also has been engaged in parliamentary life since 1996, serving as a minister in the Labor governments of Geoff Gallop and Alan Carpenter as far back as 2005.

Mark McGowan

The old parliamentary superannuation scheme will ensure a comfortable retirement for WA’s most popular premier. And at 55 McGowan still has time to embark on a post-parliamentary career if he chooses to do so.

It is easy to forget that before McGowan was elected premier a plot was hatched by dimwitted factional powerbrokers to remove him from the opposition leadership in the countdown to the 2017 election. Why? Because of poor personal approval ratings.

It is a salient reminder that political fortunes can certainly change.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia.