Lockdown limbo puts jobs future in jeopardy

The announcement that a reopening previously planned for Monday will not go ahead also follows a recent increase in consumer confidence in Victoria.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews and Victorian Health Minister Martin Foley last week. Picture: Getty Images

Daniel Andrews’s decision to pause an announcement on easing Victoria’s coronavirus restrictions follows recent figures showing jobs being created in the rest of the country as the southern state goes backwards.

The announcement that a reopening previously planned for Monday will not go ahead also follows a recent increase in consumer confidence in Victoria as Melburnians looked forward to a planned easing of restrictions — indicating mixed messaging may have had a dampening effect.

September labour force figures showed Victoria’s effective unemployment rate increased from 12.9 per cent to 14 per cent, at the same time as the national ­effective unemployment rate increased from 9.2 per cent to 9.4 per cent.

While Victoria’s unemployment rate was 6.7 per cent — a fraction lower than the national rate of 6.9 per cent — much of that figure is understood to be underpinned by JobKeeper payments, with thousands of businesses on the brink of collapse without wage payments from the federal government.

Victoria’s underemployment rate of 14.9 per cent compared with a rate of 6.4 per cent in the Northern Territory, 6.7 per cent in the ACT, 9.3 per cent in WA, 10.2 per cent in NSW, 10.7 per cent in Queensland, 10.8 per cent in Tasmania, 11.1 per cent in South Australia, and 11.4 per cent ­nationally.

Employment fell by 36,500 people in Victoria in September, despite rising by 6000 across the rest of Australia.

Jobs fell by 73,000 in the two months to September in Victoria, despite increasing by 172,000 across the rest of the country.

The jobs figures followed a Westpac consumer sentiment survey that showed confidence lifting in all states following the delivery of the federal budget, up 11.9 per cent nationally and 13.7 per cent in Victoria “to a level now comparable with most states except NSW”.

“Clearly the citizens of Vic­toria are eagerly anticipating an imminent reopening in Melbourne,” Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans concluded. “Any significant delay is likely to see confidence in Victoria held back”.

The Victorian government’s 2019-20 financial report, tabled in parliament this month, showed Victoria has racked up a $6.5bn deficit for the 2019-20 financial year — $7.2bn worse than projected — with net debt ballooning by $18.8bn from $25.5bn in 2019 to $44.3bn in 2020.

Treasurer Tim Pallas has foreshadowed more red ink in the budget due in November on a date yet to be confirmed.