LNP in box seat to win next Queensland election as Palaszczuk’s support falls

Labor leader Annastacia Palaszczuk’s hold on government in Queensland is under threat, with new polling data revealing the LNP is in an election-winning position.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s hold on government in Queensland is under threat. Picture: Liam Kidston

Labor leader Annastacia Palaszczuk’s hold on government in Queensland is under threat, with new polling data revealing the LNP is in an election-winning position and the third-term Premier’s popularity is slipping.

The YouGov results, published in The Courier-Mail, show the LNP leads Labor on a statewide two-party preferred basis for the first time since the 2020 state election, 51 per cent to 49 per cent.

Labor won government in 2020 with a 2PP result of 53.2 per cent to the LNP’s 46.8 per cent.

David Crisafulli’s opposition must win an extra 13 seats in the 93-electorate parliament to secure majority government at the state election in October next year.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Glenn Campbell

Leader of the Opposition David Crisafulli. Picture: Shae Beplate

The LNP is also continuing to lead Labor on primary vote: 39 per cent to 33 per cent. At the 2020 election, Ms Palaszczuk won power with 39.6 per cent of first-preference votes and then-opposition leader Deb Frecklington’s LNP had a primary vote of 35.9 per cent.

At the last YouGov poll in December, the LNP’s primary vote was 38 per cent to Labor’s 34 per cent. Two-party preferred results for the past two surveys, in December and June last year, had the two major parties tied on 50-50.

On preferred premier, Ms Palaszczuk’s popularity is the lowest it has been since she led Labor to a barnstorming election victory in 2015, over one-term LNP premier Campbell Newman.

The YouGov survey – of 1015 voters between March 30 and April 5 – shows 31 per cent of respondents believe Ms Palaszczuk would be the better premier, narrowly edging out the 29 per cent who back Mr Crisafulli. But a startling 40 per cent of voters are uncommitted.

Ominously for Ms Palaszczuk, her “better premier” results are worse than both Anna Bligh and Campbell Newman were polling before they were ousted.

On the eve of the October 2020 election, Ms Palaszczuk’s “better premier” figures were at 48 per cent, compared to Ms Frecklington’s 22 per cent. Some 30 per cent of voters had not made up their minds.

Former LNP Opposition leader Deb Frecklington. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Dan Peled

The Labor leader increased the government’s majority at the last election, attributed by the Premier to Queenslanders’ support for her hardline Covid policies.

ALP sources say the poll shows Mr Crisafulli is successfully prosecuting his arguments attacking the government on issues such as youth crime, health and the cost of living, exacerbating an “it’s time” sentiment among voters, particularly in the state’s volatile regions.

But the opposition still has an uphill battle.

One LNP insider told The Weekend Australian that although the poll results were being interpreted by some in the party as “we can’t lose”, more caution was needed. The insider said that “51-49 statewide (two-party preferred) means we don’t win the Brisbane seats and we won’t win the election”.

“It’s history repeating.”