Liberals’ soft-centred ‘hard man’ Peter Dutton has a clear but steep and winding path back to power

New Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton and his deputy Sussan Ley in Canberra on Monday. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Tracey Nearmy

Anthony Albanese has provided Peter Dutton with a template of how to win the 2025 election.

After three successive defeats, Labor under Albanese moved back to the centre, promised better health, child and aged care, focused on the rising cost of living pressures and marginally improved on Scott Morrison’s climate change targets.

But when Albanese’s post-election honeymoon period ends, rising inflation, higher interest rates and electricity bills, record debt, and China’s aggression will all land at Labor’s feet.

Dutton, who has pledged to soften his image and show Australians a new side to the Liberal Party hardman, has a long road ahead of him but won’t carry the same baggage as Morrison.

Leading a third-term Coalition government, Morrison was bogged-down by Nationals infighting and pushback from moderate Liberals whipped-up by Malcolm Turnbull and Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 teal movement. Without a strong support base inside his party room, the former prime minister was beholden to factional warrior Alex Hawke who helped blow up the Liberal campaign in NSW.

Dutton and new Nationals leader David Littleproud on Monday delivered simple and targeted messages promising to protect small business owners and “forgotten Australians” in the suburbs and regions.

Armed with focus group research of why Australians abandoned Morrison, Dutton committed to winning back women and multicultural voters who turned away from the Coalition, pledged support for a federal national integrity commission, and offered in-principle support for the Uluru Statement from the Heart.

Dutton’s opposition will focus on three lines of attack: Labor’s climate change policies and their impact on businesses, households and jobs; economic recovery and fiscal repair; and Xi Jinping’s march in the Indo-Pacific region.

With soaring inflation expected to keep petrol, grocery and rent prices at record levels, push interest rates higher and put downward pressure on wages growth, Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers are bracing for a tough 47th parliament.

Albanese will continue to learn the cold, hard truth of China’s intentions in the Indo-Pacific after attending the Quad leaders’ summit in Tokyo last week. Holding a slim majority in the lower house and relying on support from the Greens in the Senate, he will be under pressure to do more on climate change.

After his stints at immigration, home affairs and defence, where he was deployed as the enforcer, Dutton is expected to trail Albanese as preferred prime minister during the early months.

Liberals hope Dutton will stoke the conservative base and reclaim support from those who flocked to minor parties and independents, while softening his image and shedding unpopular positions rejected by voters.

Labor’s 32.8 per cent primary vote also provides respite for the Coalition despite its devastating rout on May 21, results described by Dutton as a “pox on both your houses”. While admitting his focus would be on the suburbs and regions, Dutton declared he would not “give up on any seat”, including those won by the teals.