Liberals heading for Tasmania majority

EARLY Newspoll figures point to a new Liberal majority government in Tasmania.

Tasmanian premier Lara Giddings in her electorate of Franklin on the eastern shore of the Derwent river in Hobart. Wed 12th ...

AS early Newspoll figures point to a new Liberal majority government in Tasmania, Premier Lara Giddings has revealed she will consider quitting the Labor leadership - potentially even parliament - if Labor loses.

Results from the first 1000 voters surveyed for a full Newspoll to be published in The Australian tomorrow show the Liberals with 53 per cent of the statewide vote.

Analysis of the early data suggests the Liberals would take at least 13 seats at the state election on Saturday, a clear majority in the 25-seat House of Assembly, ending 16 years of Labor rule.

The preliminary data at the individual electorate level, which is subject to a higher margin of error, suggests Labor may hold as few as six seats and the Greens four, while the Palmer United Party will struggle to gain a seat.

Facing an electoral bloodbath for Labor, Ms Giddings told The Australian she would stay on as leader in opposition only if she and her colleagues believed it was best for the party's rebuilding efforts.

If the consensus was that the party should rebuild under a different leader, she would stand aside and may quit parliament entirely, declaring she did not want to be "a Kevin Rudd" and linger on Labor's backbench.

In an exclusive, frank interview, Tasmania's first female premier and the youngest woman elected to any Australian parliament (in 1996), said she wanted to be "honest and open" with voters.

Ms Giddings intended to serve a full four years as Labor MP for Franklin, if re-elected, but could not rule out leaving parliament if she was no longer leader and her party felt she should quit politics.

"If it's in the interests of the Labor Party that we look to other (leadership) elements then you would have to consider that (leaving)," Ms Giddings said.

"You don't know until you are in that scenario. You do not want to be Kevin Rudd, sitting on the backbench, damaging your party just by being there, every single day.

"But it could be that I'm like a (former Labor premier) Michael Field, who lost an election but was part of the rebuilding of the Labor Party (after the 1992 election loss)."

Despite all polling consistently pointing to a Labor rout, the 41-year-old said she believed there was enough volatility within the electorate for her party to pull off an unlikely win. A consistent result of 53 per cent for the Liberals at this level of primary vote would see Labor fail to hold more than a single seat in any electorate other than Hobart-based Denison (Tasmania has five electorates each returning five MPs under Hare Clark proportional representation).

This means that in Franklin, either Ms Giddings or - more likely - her leadership rival, David O'Byrne, would lose their seat.

As well, another potential leadership contender, Brian Wightman, would lose his seat in Bass, and deputy leader Bryan Green would be at risk in his seat of Braddon.

In this scenario, Ms Giddings may be the only credible candidate left standing; unless the party opted for youth in the form of likely seat-retainers Scott Bacon, son of former premier Jim Bacon, in Denison, or Rebecca White, in Lyons.

The party may decide the best option is for Ms Giddings to quit parliament. Under the state's electoral system, this would see Mr O'Byrne elected in Franklin on a recount, allowing him to take the leadership.

Ms Giddings flagged a federal-style ALP ballot of members to elect the next leader, if she decided to stand aside and two new candidates put their names forward.