Liberals aren’t out of the hunt just yet

Health Minister Greg Hunt.

Greg Hunt’s thoughts of retirement have been the worst-kept secret in Victoria for the past six months.

It will come as little surprise to most of the Health Minister’s ­colleagues.

Hunt had first harboured thoughts of retirement in 2019.

Scott Morrison had to convince him not to join the exodus of ministers who rushed for the exit door before the last election in the belief that it was lost.

Those closest to Hunt will claim that this was a fateful ­moment.

When the pandemic struck, Hunt became the right person, in the right job at the right time. His legacy will be significant.

In that sense, his decision to retire from parliament this time around is a big loss for the ­government. But it is unlikely to have any impact on the government’s re-election prospects – unless of course the Victorian Liberal Party branch stuffs up the preselection for his replacement.

If a conservative seat such as Flinders – albeit one on a slim margin of 5.6 per cent – was thought to be vulnerable, then the Coalition doesn’t stand a chance anyway.

What Hunt’s retirement means for the Prime Minister next year is probably very little other than the obvious loss of ­arguably one of the government’s most talented and experienced ministers.

The difficulty going into next year and heading toward a campaign will be in choosing Hunt’s replacement as health minister.

Going to the polls without being able to name who the health minister will be on the other side would be an untenable proposition under normal circumstances, let alone during a pandemic.

The retirement of Christian Porter is a different story. The former attorney-general's resignation throws the seat of Pearce – margin 5.2 per cent – wide open.

Porter was a no less able nor less gifted a minister. But he hasn’t been an effective member of the government since the historical rape allegations were first levelled against him – allegations he has vigorously denied.

His departure, which many of his colleagues will maintain is a product of a manifest injustice, was only a matter of time.

Whether Porter’s absence makes it easier or harder for the Coalition to hold the semi-rural seat on Perth’s northern outskirts is debatable. What it does mean is that the WA Liberal Party has to find another $600k-$700k at least to run a new candidate – a significant drain on the resources of a branch that is already in crisis.