Liberal hopes go west in Swan as voters desert Scott Morrison

Labor is on track to easily win the West Australian seat of Swan at the next election on a primary vote of more than 40 per cent.

Scott Morrison with Swan MP Steve Irons in Perth in October 2018. Picture: AAP

Labor is on track to easily win the West Australian seat of Swan at the next election on a primary vote of more than 40 per cent, with voters backing Anthony Albanese to manage the Covid recovery better than Scott Morrison.

A poll of more than 800 people conducted this month by research firm Redbridge showed Labor winning the marginal seat by 57-43 on a two-party-preferred basis, representing a swing of 9.7 per cent from the 2019 election.

The numbers paint a bleak picture for the Prime Minister’s prospects in WA, with Labor also aiming to win Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce and Ken Wyatt’s seat of Hasluck.

Swan MP Steve Irons is retiring at the election, after holding the suburban Perth seat since 2007.

The Liberals have preselected former journalist Kristy McSweeney to run for Swan, while Labor’s candidate is mining engineer Zan­eta Mascarenhas.

The poll showed 39.6 per cent of respondents would vote Labor at the election, with that rising to 44 per cent after including those who were undecided but leaning towards voting Labor.

The Liberal primary vote is 32 per cent when including un­decided voters more likely to back the government.

Asked about the Covid recovery, 60 per cent of respondents believed the Opposition Leader would do a better job of working with the WA government, compared to 40 per cent who thought Mr Morrison was the best option.

More than 50 per cent of respondents did not think the Morrison government had supported West Australians enough during the pandemic, compared to 35 per cent who were happy with the support from the federal government.

Nearly 30 per cent of respondents said hospital funding would be the biggest determinant in their vote, with other issues being economic management (25 per cent) and climate change (24 per cent).

Sources from both the Labor and Liberal parties said the polling numbers were “not surprising” given the popularity of WA Premier Mark McGowan, who won this year’s state election in a landslide over his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Figures from both parties cast doubt on whether the negative sentiment against the government in WA would be sustained until the election. “Polling is a point in time and it is pointing to now, not when the election is,” a Liberal source said.

Bill Shorten campaigned extensively in Swan ahead of the last election but Labor’s candidate Hannah Beazley received just 33 per cent of the primary vote, compared to 45 per cent for Mr Irons. Ahead of the last election, Labor was aiming to win five WA seats off the government but did not pick up any, with the Liberals holding 11 of 16 seats.

Mr Albanese’s campaign will be more targeted and aimed at winning three seats.

WA Labor MP Patrick Gorman said people in the state were “sick of Scott Morrison’s attacks on Mark McGowan and our state … We all remember Scott Morrison backed Clive Palmer and called us ‘cave people’. Meanwhile, the NSW Liberals are trying to take our fair share of the GST. Only Labor will stand up for WA.

“State and federal Labor governments working in partnership will end the fighting – meaning we can work together and get more done for our state.”