NewsBite

Coalition eyes 10 winnable seats to stay in power

Coalition strategists focus on a list of up to 10 seats it could win to pull off an against-the-odds ­victory.

Scott Morrison and his family in a video still from the Liberal Party campaign video released last night.
Scott Morrison and his family in a video still from the Liberal Party campaign video released last night.

With Scott Morrison calling a May 18 election, Coalition strategists are focusing on a hit list of up to 10 seats it could win to pull off an against-the-odds ­victory.

The firing of the starter’s gun on the formal ­campaign came as Labor’s signature tax policy to slash negative gearing began to unravel, with opposition ­Treasury spokesman Chris Bowen admitting yesterday to a blowout in the number of investors likely to claim the tax break.

Labor enters the campaign under pressure on key ­policy fronts, including targets for 50 per cent of car sales to be ­electric by 2030 and questions over its ability to deliver a ­promised bulk-billing guarantee for $2.3 billion worth of cancer care plans.

Campaign strategists in both the Coalition and Labor camps are primed for a bare-­knuckled, seat-by-seat battle.

Scott Morrison talks to Bass Liberal candidate Bridget Archer, centre, and Health Minister Greg Hunt, right, at the North Esk Rowing Club in Tasmania yesterday. Picture: AAP
Scott Morrison talks to Bass Liberal candidate Bridget Archer, centre, and Health Minister Greg Hunt, right, at the North Esk Rowing Club in Tasmania yesterday. Picture: AAP

Senior Liberal Party sources said there were at least eight seats that they believed were now “in play” and could decide the election outcome, with a further two as outside chances for the Coalition.

With Newspoll this week showing a narrowing in the contest and a slip in popular support for Labor following last week’s budget, Liberal Party sources ­believe that the election, while ­difficult to win, is not yet lost.

A senior Labor source admitted the result could be closer than ­expected, with Bill Shorten ­possibly ending up winning 80 seats for a small majority in the House of Representatives, which will grow from 150 to 151 seats at the election due to a redistribution by the Australian Electoral ­Commission.

Mr Morrison last night released a video featuring his family and appealing to voters to think of the future.

“The next 10 years are important for everybody, in every stage of life,” he says.

Scott Morrison’s ‘vision for Australia’

The Coalition will be fighting an almost unprecedented ­campaign, as it is effectively starting behind, despite Malcolm Turnbull’s one-seat 2016 election win.

After the electoral redistrib­ution, Labor is notionally ahead in two newly created seats and two Liberal-held seats in Victoria have ­become notionally Labor.

The Liberal Party also lost Mr Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth at a by-election last October.

“We not only have to defend seats because we can’t afford to lose any, but we need to win seats as well,” a senior Coalition source said. “We have to run a defensive and offensive strategy at the same time.

“Basically we can’t afford to stuff up … and there are always stuff-ups during a campaign.”

The Australian has confirmed that Coalition resources will be thrown into winning back the three Tasmanian seats of Bass, Braddon and Lyons, which internal polling suggests are “in play”.

wn w w w w w w w w
wn w w w w w w w w

The key seats list also includes the north Queensland seat of Herbert and the Northern Territory seat of Solomon.

In NSW, Lindsay is being targeted for a fierce assault and there are hopes that Wentworth, lost to independent Kerryn Phelps in the by-election, would also come back to Liberal Party candidate Dave Sharma.

The former Liberal-held seat of Indi in regional Victoria, which fell to independent Cathy McGowan in 2013, was also potentially ­winnable, according to independ­ent polling.

In Western Australia, the seat of Cowan, which fell to Labor candidat­e Anne Aly in 2016, was also being targeted as winnable.

There was also an outside chance that the Labor-held seat of Macquarie, west of Sydney, could become a contest.

However, a senior Liberal Party source said the retirement of ­Michael Keenan in the Perth seat of Stirling had put that at risk, as was the NSW south coast seat of Gilmore, which has been vacated by Liberal MP Ann Sudmalis.

The defection of former Liberal MP Julia Banks had put the ­suburban Melbourne seat of ­Chisholm at serious risk of going back to Labor.

And Tony Abbott was fighting to retain his northern Sydney seat of Warringah, which is at risk of falling to independent and former OIympic skier Zali Steggall.

Labor has 12 key seats on its hit list on top of the two newly created seats — Bean in the ACT and Fraser in Melbourne’s western suburbs, which are regarded as notionally Labor.

In Victoria, the opposition ­believes it can win Dunkley and Corangamite, the two Liberal seats that are now notionally Labor, as well as Latrobe and Chisholm.

In Sydney it will make a play for the western Sydney seat of Reid being vacated by retiring Liberal MP Craig Laundy, as well as ­Gilmore.

In central Queensland, where Liberal National Party internal polling is believed to have the ­Coalition primary vote in “the 30s” Labor believes it could win the seat of Flynn.

The southern Brisbane seat of Forde and the northern Brisbane seat of Petrie were also on the Labor hit list, as were the suburban seats of Stirling and Hasluck in Perth.

The northern NSW coastal seat of Page, held by the Nationals, was also being heavily targeted by Labor.

The Opposition Leader was campaigning in Page yesterday on an expansion of his cancer care health policy.

Add your comment to this story

To join the conversation, please Don't have an account? Register

Join the conversation, you are commenting as Logout

Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/lets-go-morrison-to-start-campaign/news-story/3fde2b8ea522b0ad82ed7948b545fe27