Let people know Covid facts: Burnet Institute director Brendan Crabb

Burnet Institute director Brendan Crabb says the country needs to understand the pandemic will not be over when winter ends.

Burnet Institute modelling indicates Covid-19 infections will peak in mid-August.

The head of one of the country’s top medical institutes says he’s uncomfortable his organisation can’t release taxpayer-funded Covid-19 modelling, as he urged national cabinet to replace Australia’s “let it rip” strategy with one that focused explicitly on reducing transmission.

Director of Melbourne’s Burnet Institute Brendan Crabb, whose organisation has produced modelling for state and federal governments, also said the country needed to understand the pandemic would not be over when winter ended because another wave of cases would inevitably arrive.

The push for a strategic reset comes as the Albanese government faces pressure from doctors and the opposition to release modelling and health advice given to national cabinet on the weekend that revealed the potential impact of the new, more infectious Omicron sub-variants on hospital capacity and the broader health system.

After receiving the update from chief medical officer Paul Kelly at an emergency national cabinet meeting on Saturday, the Prime Minister was forced to backflip and reinstate pandemic leave disaster payments until the end of September, with the states to pay half of the nearly $800m cost.

Brendan Crabb. Picture: Hamish Blair

Professor Crabb said the Burnet Institute, whose latest modelling hasn’t been made public by the Victorian government, championed public disclosure.

The modelling indicates infections will peak in mid-August but hospitalisations and deaths could be reduced by mask wearing indoors and more Australians getting their booster shots, according to the Institute’s deputy director Margaret Hellard.

“To do a piece of work that is effectively not available to the whole public is not a world we’re used to or comfortable with but it is an emergency, we understand that,” Professor Crabb said.

Professor Crabb said governments should explain why publicly funded data is not publicly available.

About 50 Australians are dying each day from Covid and 4600 of the 328,000 active cases are hospitalised.

Nearly eight million Australians contracted the virus in the first six months of this year but epidemiologists believe unofficially the figure is more like 16 million.

“I’d like the Prime Minister and the premiers to say ‘Anything that can be construed as a “let it rip strategy is dead, it’s now about reducing transmission, getting this under control, reducing cases’,” Professor Crabb said.

“The really good news is this does not need the methods of 2020 or 2021. We know a lot more and we have better tools now. They were really nicely outlined in the AHPPC report of a week ago. There are only three things: get vaccinated, breathe clean air and get tested and isolate if you’re positive.”

As revealed in The Weekend Australian, Professor Crabb has joined with other infectious diseases experts to call on governments to advocate the July 8 Australian Health Protection Principle Committee advice, which asks people to stay up to date with Covid vaccinations, wear masks while in crowded, indoor places including public transport, ensure those spaces are well ventilated and stay at home and get tested with any symptoms.

Employers were also asked to consider having some employees working from home.

While state governments and business groups have rejected mask mandates, Health Minister Mark Butler has been encouraging employers to take up working from home arrangements.

Australian Medical Association president Omar Khorshid said for governments to best prepare Australians for the possibility of mask mandates or other limits on their freedom they had to be open about where the country was heading and release Covid modelling.

“If people understand the size of the problem and what politicians are dealing with, it’ll help,” Dr Khorshid said. “It might help Australians take their third or fourth vaccine dose. I’d support the release of whatever modelling they’ve got, it helps us accept what’s coming.”

Opposition health spokeswoman Anne Ruston said the Albanese government “should be doing as its absolute priority anything and everything to prepare Australia and Australians for this unfolding wave of the pandemic”.

“We (the former Morrison government) released the Doherty Institute modelling (that informed national cabinet’s reopening plan) and subsequent updates because we believed that was going to be helpful in preparing Australia for the situation unfolding before it,” Senator Ruston said.

“Any advice and support that can be given to the Australian public so they can better understand how to prepare for themselves and their communities, the health system and the like, should be pursued.”

A Labor spokeswoman said the government would consider “what further data to provide to assist Australians understand the Covid-19 situation”.

“Professor Kelly outlined the latest commonwealth modelling to national cabinet and the impact of the BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants,” she said.

“As the Prime Minister outlined, Professor Kelly highlighted that these sub-variants are highly contagious, more so than previous sub-variants. The modelling outlines a range of scenarios to outline trends rather than specific case numbers.

“Professor Kelly did stress the importance of vaccination and antivirals to address hospitalisations, and take-up of both have markedly increased in recent weeks.”

As well as reinstating pandemic leave payments worth up to $750 while a person isolated for seven days, the government announced it would from this week bulk-bill long telehealth phone consultations used to prescribe antivirals.

A scheme allowing pensioners to access 10 free rapid antigen tests will finish as planned at the end of this month, drawing criticism from industry groups, but Mr Albanese said the states were making sure free RATs remained available.

NSW Nurses and Midwives association general secretary Brett Holmes said he had received advice from health authorities that the imminent Omicron wave would be “as bad or worse” than January. Staffing shortages in hospitals remained his main concern.