Leader can't just ignore his MPs

MALCOLM Turnbull might have to rethink how he treats his back bench. He doesn't have the authority of a managing director or a prime minister. He is the Opposition Leader of a Coalition disunited on what to do about the government's ETS legislation.

Well, actually it isn't that disunited. It's more that Turnbull and his front bench are at odds with the rest of the Liberal Party, and the Nationals.

An overwhelming majority of Liberal backbenchers know exactly where they stand on negotiating amendments to the ETS legislation ahead of the Copenhagen conference in December. They are dead against doing so.

Until now, nobody knew for sure what the Liberal partyroom's position on the ETS actually was. Thanks to today's survey we do now. Senior Liberals have tried to cajole the media into believing only a vocal minority of Liberals oppose negotiating on the issue. That isn't true.

This survey result is political poison for Turnbull. The government will use it to condemn the opposition as out of touch on climate change, and proof positive that Turnbull can't even unite and lead a political party, much less a country.

The anger among the backbenchers at not being listened to by their frontbench colleagues is palpable.

The comments by senator Julian McGauran are a public airing of what many backbenchers said privately when questioned for the survey. And while many didn't want to be named for today's report, several said they intended to go public on the issue in the days and weeks ahead.

This is the beginning of a revolt against Turnbull.

But the revolt is a policy revolt, and one based on his leadership style. It is not an attempt to remove him as leader. After all, there really isn't anyone else to turn to, at the moment anyway.

Because of that, Turnbull and his front bench may decide to ignore the shoutings of the back bench - but doing so is risky.

It is not reasonable for any back bench to expect a leader to get their soundings on every single issue. To do so would cripple a leader's ability to hold a government to account.

After all, a leader must have some autonomy to act independently of his followers.

But on this issue, the numbers in the Liberal Party are so clear that Turnbull has only two choices: convince them to follow him or alter his position and reflect their views. He can't just ignore them, as he has been.