Labor’s net migration forecast ‘too optimistic’, expert warns

Jim Chalmers has accused Peter Dutton of seeking to ‘dial up division’ over immigration, as an expert warns Labor’s net migration forecasts is ‘too optimistic’.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers at Parliament House. Picture: Getty Images

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Jim Chalmers has accused Peter Dutton of seeking to “dial up division” over immigration, as an expert warns Labor’s forecasts are “too optimistic” unless there is a significant decline in the ­labour market.

Amid expectations the Opposition Leader will unveil details of his own immigration policy in Thursday’s budget reply, the Treasurer has accused Mr Dutton of confusion over net migration targets.  After Labor forecast in the budget that net overseas ­migration would fall to 225,000 in 2026-27 and the two following years, Dr Chalmers declined to weigh in on whether it would be possible for the Coalition to fulfil its promise to pursue deeper cuts to immigration.

He said Treasury’s prediction that net migration would decline to 255,000 in the next financial year before falling further was the continuation of a downward trend as temporary migrants depart the country and fewer come in under a “considered and methodical” approach.

“It’s not clear to me what Peter Dutton is saying,” Dr Chalmers said in a post-budget National Press Club address.

“He’s made an announcement, walked it back and then denied he walked it back, and let’s see what he says about that tomorrow night.”

Mr Dutton on Wednesday declined to confirm if the ­Coalition’s position was to slash net migration by 25 per cent, saying he would have more to say on Thursday. “We’ll make announcements, but what I think we’ve demonstrated clearly so far is that the Albanese government’s Big Australia policy has locked young Australians out of housing,” he told Sky News.

“Our approach will be lower migration and more Australians into Australian housing and that, I think, is an important difference between the two parties.”

Immigration Department former deputy secretary Abul Rizvi said Labor’s 225,000 prediction was unlikely to be achieved unless there was a dramatic softening in the economy or significant policy tightening to speed up departures.

“To get really big departure rates, you would need to get unemployment up to 6 per cent at least,” he said.

Dr Rizvi said he expected Mr Dutton to unveil a net overseas migration figure that was higher than the 160,000 target he previously floated, adding he believed the 140,000 permanent migration target was impossible.

“Certainly, the 160,000 is undeliverable, and Mr Dutton himself appears to have now recognised that,” he said. “So presumably he’s going to have a figure higher than 160,000 but lower than 225,000.”

Mr Dutton said in his budget reply speech last year he would cut permanent migration by 25 per cent from 185,000 to 140,000 over two years, in a bid to reduce pressure on the housing market.

But in a radio interview the next day, the Opposition Leader said the Coalition’s target was to “bring back the net overseas ­migration to a figure of about 160,000”.

He then appeared to dump that target in December, stating that the Coalition would “have a look at the economic settings when we come to government”.

Last week Mr Dutton denied he had ever “walked back” his migration target.