Labor’s dominance is brittle despite NSW election: John Howard tells Liberals

The former PM has warned the Coalition to resist a ‘woe is us’ ­mentality, denying Labor’s coast-to-coast dominance is the result of a ‘policy movement’ against conservatives.

John Howard at the Liberal election party in the Hilton Hotel in Sydney on Saturday night. Picture: Damian Shaw

Liberal Party hero John Howard has warned against the Coalition descending into a “woe is us” ­mentality, declaring that Labor’s victory in the NSW election and new coast-to-coast dominance were not the result of “a coherent nationwide policy movement” against the conservatives.

Australia’s second-longest-serving prime minister, who campaigned for Dominic Perrottet and Scott Morrison to help sandbag marginal seats at the state and federal elections, said the NSW ­Coalition’s loss after 12 years in power was “orthodox” and that the ALP’s control of the mainland would “not last long”.

As federal Liberal frontbenchers delivered a similar message ahead of Saturday’s must-win Aston by-election in Melbourne, Mr Howard told The Australian “attempts to suggest it was ­because of this or that stance on something is wrong”.

With Opposition Leader Peter Dutton facing his biggest leadership test in defending Aston, held on a 2.8 per cent margin, a confident Anthony Albanese is preparing to seize on the momentum of Labor’s national dominance.

After Chris Minns’ NSW election victory, Labor controls eight of nine federal, state and territory governments, including all mainland jurisdictions. Wielding enormous political clout around the national cabinet table, Mr Albanese will use Labor’s growing ­influence to maximise his policy agenda.

Incoming NSW premier Chris Minns heads out with wife Anna and sons Joe, Nick and George for a Sunday morning coffee at a local cafe. Picture: AAP

The last Labor prime minister to enjoy wall-to-wall ALP governments was Kevin Rudd for 10 months from November 2007, when former Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman was the ­nation’s highest-ranking Liberal leader.

Mr Howard on Sunday played down the election defeat, declaring it a “conventional change of government, an orthodox change of government”.

“After 12 years it is hard to stay in office, I can tell you,” Mr Howard said. “That is the nature of life, no matter who is in charge. It’s not a reflection of a coherent nationwide policy movement.

“It’s an easy line to say ‘woe is us’ because we have got coast-to-coast Labor governments. But in the nature of things, I think in my time as prime minister, they were largely Labor state governments. It didn’t make an enormous amount of practical difference. The states always want more money. But I think it can be overdone. It happens very rarely and it doesn’t last long.”

The 83-year-old, who was prime minister from 1996 to 2007, said there were always calls “for reform when you lose”.

“The difficulties and challenges I’ve spoken about before, factionalism and making sure you honour rank-and-file preselection protocols, they still stand,” he said.

“I think it’s always a bad thing for the state executive to impose their will on local branches. I’m not suggesting that’s a reason why we lost; we lost in the ­normal cycle. My strongest ­observation is that it was a ­conventional ‘time for a change’ to a non-threatening opposition. And any complicated clever explanation about neutralising teals doesn’t wash.”

The Coalition will have to wait 17 months for their next election contest, with polls expected in the Northern Territory, ACT and Queensland between August and October next year. Federal, WA and Tasmanian elections are due in 2025, while Victorian and South Australian voters won’t head to the polls until 2026.

Dominic Perrottet leaves his Sydney home on Sunday after his election defeat. Picture: Monique Harmer

Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen, a former colleague and close friend of Mr Minns, said it was important not to overstate the impact of coast-to-coast governments. “To a degree, if you are of the same party, it reduces a certain complicating factor, the temptation to make a political point,” Mr Bowen said.

Communications Minister ­Michelle Rowland said Mr Albanese was “mindful” of balancing Labor’s national cabinet dominance with parochial state issues.

“I think they will all be arguing for their individual states’ needs,” Ms Rowland told Sky News. “The future of the commonwealth is in really good hands with all these mainland states in Labor’s hands at the moment. But it is not lost on anyone that power is fleeting as well. You need to use it wisely.”

Amid rising anxiety in Coalition ranks about the Aston by-election, triggered by Alan Tudge’s retirement, senior federal Liberal MPs are determined to avoid infighting that could damage the prospects of Liberal candidate Roshena Campbell.

Mr Albanese and senior cabinet ministers have held multiple events with Labor candidate Mary Doyle in the marginal seat, where voters turned away from Mr Tudge at last year’s federal election.

The Liberal campaign in the outer-eastern Melbourne seat, led on the ground by federal director Andrew Hirst, is focused on cost-of-living pressures, mortgage hikes and roads while Labor is pushing hard on health.

Victorian Liberal MPs said “it feels good on the ground – not great, but good”.

“I think it’s going to be tight. We’ve got a very good candidate, which is a good start, but it’s definitely going to be close,” one said.

On the NSW result, opposition foreign affairs spokesman and Senate leader Simon Birmingham, the Liberal Party’s leading federal moderate voice, said: “Both major parties have hit similar low points before, so the first thing to remember is that recovery is always possible.

“Lifting our primary vote ­requires strategies, policies and candidates that better reflect the unmistakeable change in demographics across the electorate. There’s no single silver bullet.”

Opposition immigration spokesman Dan Tehan said “no Liberal government had won a fourth term in NSW and their backs were against the wall”.

 Other senior Liberal MPs said the “it’s time” factor was the biggest contributor to the loss. “Catastrophising is a bit silly. This was a government that had been in for 12 years. It was an old government that had become very messy,” a Liberal frontbencher said.