Labor voters jumping ship, but not to the Nationals

The Nationals registered bigger negative swings than Labor in the Upper Hunter by-election in voting booths that fall within the federal seat of Hunter.

Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon. Picture: Gary Ramage

The Nationals registered bigger negative swings than Labor in the Upper Hunter state by-election in voting booths that fall within the federal seat of Hunter.

An analysis of booths from the by-election within the Hunter seat, held by Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon, shows the Nationals primary vote at 24.6 per cent, down 6.5 per cent in the same booths from the 2019 NSW poll.

Labor’s primary vote in the Hunter booths was down 5.5 per cent since the 2019 election, falling to 29.6 per cent.

One Nation attracted 13.2 per cent of votes in the booths, while the Shooters Fishers and Farmers registered 12 per cent.

The Nationals’ vote went down in coalmining booths, including in Muswellbrook, in contrast to the last federal election.

Nationals senator Matt Canavan, who conducted the analysis, said the results showed disaffected Labor voters were shifting to One Nation and the SFF rather than to the Coalition.

With the Nationals targeting the seat of Hunter at the next election, Senator Canavan warned there was a risk of the once-Labor stronghold falling to One Nation.

“We’ve got a lot of work to do to get working-class voters on our side,” Senator Canavan said.

“Working-class voters are up for grabs. They’ve left Labor but they haven’t yet gone … to the LNP in the mining towns of the Upper Hunter.

“One Nation won more of the disaffected voters than we did.”

Senator Canavan said the ­Nationals would have a better chance of winning the Hunter electorate if the Morrison government promised to build a coal-fired power station while refusing to sign up to zero-net emissions by 2050. “Then we might get these miners and other workers who want to make things in this country,” Senator Canavan said.

About 36 per cent of the Upper Hunter state seat falls within the federal Hunter electorate, 40 per cent falls within Barnaby Joyce’s seat of New England and 24 per cent within Lyne, held by Nationals MP David Gillespie.

Over the entire Upper Hunter result, the Nationals registered a negative swing of 3 per cent and a primary vote of 31 per cent. Labor had a primary vote of 21 per cent — a negative swing of 7 per cent.

Mr Fitzgibbon used the result to warn that Labor was suffering brand damage in regional areas.

“Our brand is in trouble. If we don’t heed the warning, we’ll go the way of the Kodak brand,” Mr Fitzgibbon said this week.