Labor sets 2022 election pace as swing puts 12 seats in reach

Anthony Albanese would secure a majority ­govern­ment if this week’s Newspoll analysis was replicated at the 2022 election.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese with Labor candidate for Longman, Rebecca Fanning. Picture: John Gass

Anthony Albanese would win a total of 12 seats from the Liberals and secure a majority ­govern­ment with more than 80 MPs in the House of Representatives if this week’s Newspoll analysis was replicated at the 2022 election.

This result would inflict a devastating defeat for Scott Morrison and the Coalition following the federal government’s navigation of the global pandemic, and would defy some expert predictions for a hung parliament or a nailbiting, neck-and-neck finish to the electoral contest ­between the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader.

Mr Albanese has categorically ruled out the prospect of Labor striking a power-sharing deal with the Greens should it fail to win enough seats to form government in its own right.

A previous quarterly Newspoll analysis from July suggested Mr Albanese would pick up nine seats from the Coalition, including two electorates held by cabinet ministers – Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson in Queensland and Ken Wyatt’s seat of Hasluck in Western Australia.

It also showed Labor on track to win the West Australian seat of Pearce that is being vacated by former attorney-general Christian Porter, who is no longer a cabinet minister.

The results of the latest quarterly Newspoll analysis suggest that Labor has increased its advantage, and the number of seats it would win from the Coalition has lifted from nine to 12 based on the state two-party preferred swings.

Labor holds 68 seats in the current parliament but will go into the next election with a notional 69 seats, including the new electorate of Hawke in Melbourne’s northwest.

A total of 77 seats will be required to hold a majority on the floor of the parliament after the allocation of a Speaker.

The 4.78 per cent swing to Labor in NSW since the last federal poll would see Mr Albanese gain the seats of Reid and Robertson, which are held by the Liberals on margins of 3.18 and 4.24 per cent respectively.

Scott Morrison with the Liberal MP for Reid, Fiona Martin, at a brewery in Sydney’s Lidcombe. Picture: Damian Shaw

In Victoria, a 2.86 per cent swing to Labor would see it also pick up the crucial Liberal seat of Chisholm, which is held by Gladys Liu on a wafer-thin ­margin of 0.5 per cent.

In Tasmania, assuming the ­national swing to Labor of 4.53 per cent is replicated, Mr Albanese would win the battleground seats of Braddon and Bass, which are held by the Coalition government on margins of 3.09 per cent and 0.41 per cent respectively.

In Western Australia, Labor would win the seats of Swan, Pearce and Hasluck – held by the government on margins of 3.2, 5.2 and 5.9 per cent – and also pick up the seat of Tangney, which is held by close ally of the Prime Minister and the Special Minister of State, Ben Morton.

Since the 2019 election, the statewide two party-preferred swing to federal Labor in Western Australia – where ALP Premier Mark McGowan won 52 seats in the 59-member Legislative Assembly earlier this year – is now running at 10.55 per cent.

In South Australia, Labor is on track to win the seat of Boothby, which is being vacated by Liberal MP Nicolle Flint.

 

Ms Flint held the seat on a margin of 1.38 per cent, with Newspoll suggesting a swing to Labor in the state of 4.29 per cent.

The quarterly analysis of ­Newspoll surveys shows the biggest swing to federal Labor is in the resources state of Western Australia, where the Coalition managed to holds its position in 2019 and avoid the loss of any seats.

However, the government also faces swings of more than 4 per cent in NSW, Queensland and South Australia. The analysis suggests that Victoria will have the smallest swing to Labor.