Labor MPs fear Liberals win in Dunkley

Melbourne-based Liberal MPs say they would take a five per cent Dunkley swing as a win for Peter Dutton, declaring cost of living and crime as the main issues in the Victorian seat.

Melbourne-based Liberal MPs say they would take a five per cent swing as a win for Peter Dutton, declaring cost of living and crime as the main issues in the Victorian seat of Dunkley. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Martin Ollman

Melbourne-based Liberal MPs say they would take a 5 per cent swing in the Dunkley by-election as a win for Peter Dutton, ­declaring cost of living and crime as the main issues in the Victorian seat.

MPs said that although it was unlikely the ­opposition would win Saturday’s crucial by-election in the outer suburban seat, the contest between Anthony Albanese and the Opposition Leader had tightened since the Aston by-election last year.

Liberal and Labor MPs agreed pre-polling showed a “50-50” split between prospective voters, but that there was also a high degree of apathy among constituents who would ultimately decide the outcome of the vote.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Picture: NCA NewsWire/David Crosling

Liberal MPs said the party’s campaign, focused on cost of living and community safety, had cut through well with voters amid a rise in crime levels in Melbourne.

“It has been overwhelmingly the cost of living that has been the dominant issue, and the only other issues are border protection, community safety and national security,” one Liberal MP said.

“There is an awareness of the released detainees and there was an awareness of the boat that came last weekend so there is a bit of a perception that Labor’s lost control of the borders, Labor’s lost control of community safety.” Another MP said Mr Dutton still had brand issues but that they were being helped by the Prime Minister coming off “stratospheric highs” he enjoyed in the months after he took office.

“I think we will do at least 3 per cent, a good day four and a really good day five,” they said.

Labor MPs, who asked to remain anonymous so they could speak freely, said the contest of Dunkley was tight and it was not out of the question for the ­Coalition to take the seat. “They can definitely win,” one said.

Victorian Liberal MP Jason Wood revealed the opposition was targeting multicultural communities that, despite being a small cohort in Dunkley, could still make the difference. “Feedback from the Chinese in particular is when we take Peter Dutton to … events, the amount of Chinese people getting selfies with him is huge,” he said.

“The Chinese are getting really behind the Liberals, especially those owning small businesses. Dunkley is not very multicultural at all. It’s not going to make a huge difference, but if it makes up being a difference of 1000 votes, then the multicultural vote will count.”

Senior Liberal strategists said the campaign had gone well but that the party was coming from a long way behind with a very low primary vote at the federal election less than two years ago.

They said the opposition was not expecting victory but that it was doing as much as it could to gain a swing.

MP Jason Wood. Picture: Nicki Connolly

NDIS Minister Bill Shorten. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Martin Ollman

While Mr Dutton and other Liberals have drawn attention to “how tough” Victoria was for their party, a Labor MP said outer suburban Victoria was “no different to outer suburban Queensland”.

“You’ve got working people predominantly focused on the matters before them, predominantly economic issues,” they said.

Victorian MP and NDIS Minister Bill Shorten said a 3 per cent swing or less was a loss for the Liberals. He blasted Mr Dutton for trying to claim a certain swing – 4 per cent or more against Labor – would be a win for his party.

“What you’re doing now guys if I only lose by a certain amount, I’m a winner,” he told Channel 9.

But Mr Shorten said Dunkley was not “anyone’s heartland” ­despite the 6.3 per margin.

“It’s going to be close,” he said.