If there is a singular message from Donald Trump’s emphatic victory that should be ringing in Anthony Albanese’s ears it is this: inflation kills governments.
On its election in May 2022, Labor did not recognise that its primary job in the first six months should have been to stamp on inflation over the next two years.
If the government had done that it would be on a much better glide path to the election. Instead, Labor stands accused by the opposition of having fuelled it.
State Labor governments on spending sprees have made the situation demonstrably worse.
It is unlikely now that there will be an interest-rate cut before the federal election next year.
And the government may end up paying a very high price for it.
If a spending model is one that Albanese now seeks to pursue based on this realisation, he will be exposed to the Coalition’s argument that modern Labor is singularly unsuited to managing a high-inflation environment.
This was the most significant lesson to be drawn from the US election result.
A revolt by the disregarded class.
And a second lesson flows from the first. The voice campaign failed for many reasons, least of all the pursuit of such a contested social issue during a cost-of-living crisis.
As Kamala Harris proved, if as a government you are not addressing the primary concern sufficiently, and in her case ignored, then the rest of your agenda is likely to be rejected, however worthy any of it may be.
Governments seeking social change or transformation can get away with a lot if they are simultaneously improving people’s living standards.
The Democrats’ failure to recognise this could easily be replicated here if Labor doesn’t engage in a rethink of its own agenda.
Where it might otherwise be at least tolerated if standards of living haven’t dropped so dramatically, electoral tolerance or even support for radical social change is almost absent, from a mainstream perspective, in times of economic upheaval.
The election of Kevin Rudd demonstrated this point. He got away with a lot, until he didn’t.
The risk for Peter Dutton is overreach on the assessment that Trump represented a total rebellion against wokism, as he claims.
This was certainly a significant part of the movement. But it was perhaps more a secondary effect, fuelled by the primary one – the economic imperative.
Nevertheless, at a deeper level Trump’s emphatic victory has the potential to foster an environment of permission in the Australian context for more people to reject the type of political agendas they think have gone too far – but may have been afraid to express their opinion.
The big Trump story is one of a continuation of incumbent governments being punished for inflation.
The question is whether the Albanese government will soon join their ranks.
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